PTA、MEG早报-20250905

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - PTA: The PTA futures fluctuated and closed down yesterday. The spot market negotiation atmosphere improved slightly, with increased buying from polyester factories, but the basis continued to weaken. The PTA device maintenance effect was less than expected, and the spot market liquidity was fair. The spot basis weakened, and the price fluctuated following the cost side. Although the processing margin improved slightly from the low point, it remained at a relatively low level. Attention should be paid to the maintenance situation of the Hengli Huizhou device and subsequent upstream and downstream device changes [5]. - MEG: On Thursday, the ethylene glycol price increased and then slightly adjusted, with active market transactions. The coal - chemical device maintenance was implemented. The ethylene glycol futures rose and then slightly pulled back in the morning, and the buying in the market moderately followed up. In the afternoon, the basis of near - term goods continued to strengthen. It is expected that the arrival volume in early September will still be moderately low, and there is still room for a moderate decline in the port in the short term. From the demand perspective, it is expected that the average load in September can reach the 91.5% level, and the rigid demand support is gradually improving. Recently, the commodity market has corrected, and the ethylene glycol futures are under pressure. It is expected that the short - term ethylene glycol price will be mainly range - bound, with strong support below. Subsequent attention should be paid to device and polyester load changes [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1.前日回顾 No information provided in the content. 3.2.每日提示 - PTA - Fundamentals: Futures fluctuated down, spot negotiation improved, basis weakened. 9 - lower transactions were concentrated, with prices around 4600 - 4640. The current mainstream spot basis is 01 - 57 [5]. - Basis: Spot price is 4615, 01 - contract basis is - 41, with the futures at a premium [6]. - Inventory: PTA factory inventory is 3.9 days, a 0.09 - day increase compared to the previous period [6]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average [6]. - Main force position: Net short position, short position increasing [5]. - Expectation: Pay attention to Hengli Huizhou device maintenance and upstream - downstream device changes [5]. - MEG - Fundamentals: Price increased and then adjusted, market transactions were active. Coal - chemical device maintenance was implemented. Near - term basis strengthened. Foreign market was weak. Short - term arrival volume is moderately low, and port inventory may decline. Demand load is expected to reach 91.5% in September [7]. - Basis: Spot price is 4456, 01 - contract basis is 99, with the futures at a discount [7]. - Inventory: The total inventory in the East China region is 38.03 tons, a 2.6 - ton decrease compared to the previous period [7]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average [7]. - Main force position: Main force net short position, short position increasing [7]. - Expectation: Price range - bound, with strong support below. Pay attention to device and polyester load changes [7]. 3.3.今日关注 No information provided in the content. 3.4.基本面数据 - PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It shows the PTA supply - demand situation from January 2024 to December 2025, including capacity, production, demand, inventory, and other data [11]. - Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It shows the ethylene glycol supply - demand situation from January 2024 to December 2025, including production, import, supply, demand, port inventory, and other data [12]. 3.5.影响因素总结 - Likely Positive Factors - Some PTA device maintenance plans in August improved the supply - demand expectation [10]. - With the approaching of the traditional "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, the market has some expectations for demand recovery [10]. - Yisheng Hainan's 2 - million - ton device stopped for maintenance, and Hengli Huizhou's 2.5 - million - ton device had an unplanned shutdown [10]. - Likely Negative Factors: The profit margins of each link in the industrial chain continue to be under pressure, and the overall operating atmosphere remains cautious [9]. 3.6. Current Main Logic and Risk Points The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and the resistance level above should be watched for the market rebound [9].