沪锌期货早报-20250905

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai zinc futures are expected to fluctuate weakly, specifically the ZN2510 contract [2][19]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals - In April 2025, global zinc plate production was 1.153 million tons, consumption was 1.1302 million tons, with a supply surplus of 22,700 tons. From January to April, production was 4.4514 million tons, consumption was 4.5079 million tons, with a supply shortage of 56,500 tons. Global zinc mine production from January to April was 4.0406 million tons [2]. - The basis is -120 with the spot price at 22,000, indicating a bearish signal [2]. 3.2 Inventory - On September 4, LME zinc inventory decreased by 475 tons to 54,750 tons, and SHFE zinc inventory warrants decreased by 51 tons to 40,896 tons [2]. - The total social inventory of zinc ingots in major Chinese markets increased to 138,500 tons on September 4 from 129,800 tons on August 28 and 133,300 tons on September 1 [5]. 3.3 Futures Market - On September 4, the trading volume of zinc futures contracts was 268,174 lots, and the turnover was 2.96865421 billion yuan. The open interest was 232,424 lots, an increase of 18,399 lots [3]. - For the SHFE zinc contract zn2510, the top three in trading volume were CITIC Futures (53,788 lots, an increase of 19,193 lots), Guotai Junan (46,574 lots, an increase of 7,019 lots), and Dongzheng Futures (42,339 lots, an increase of 15,916 lots). The top three in long positions were Dongzheng Futures (7,592 lots, an increase of 804 lots), Jianxin Futures (7,235 lots, an increase of 189 lots), and CITIC Futures (6,725 lots, a decrease of 1,684 lots). The top three in short positions were CITIC Futures (15,482 lots, a decrease of 162 lots), Dongzheng Futures (11,141 lots, an increase of 4,007 lots), and Guotai Junan (8,842 lots, an increase of 1,567 lots) [17]. 3.4 Spot Market - On September 4, the prices of various zinc - related products in the domestic spot market declined. For example, zinc concentrate in Lin decreased by 220 yuan/ton to 16,640 yuan/ton, and zinc ingots in Aoshi decreased by 270 yuan/ton to 22,000 yuan/ton [4]. - The prices of zinc ingots from different smelters also decreased by 270 yuan/ton. For instance, the price of 0 zinc ingots from Mingnan Zhouting was 22,240 yuan/ton, and that from Guangdong Zhongjin Lingnan was 21,970 yuan/ton [12]. 3.5 Technical Analysis - The previous trading day, Shanghai zinc showed a fluctuating downward trend, closing below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average was downward [2]. - Technically, the price closed below the moving average system, losing the support of the moving average. The short - term indicator KDJ declined and entered the weak area. The trend indicator showed that the long - side strength decreased, the short - side strength increased, and the short - side dominance expanded [19].