建信期货原油日报-20250905

Report Information - Report Title: Crude Oil Daily [1] - Date: September 5, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Overall, the report suggests taking a bearish approach to oil prices [7] Core Viewpoints - This year, the peak - season consumption in the US is weak, and the market has digested the US interest - rate cut expectation to some extent. Oil prices have no driving force and are expected to continue to oscillate at the bottom. Attention should be paid to the OPEC+ meeting. If OPEC+ suspends production increases, oil prices can rebound slightly in the short term, but the rebound will be limited. If production continues to increase, it will intensify the supply surplus in the fourth quarter, and oil prices will face long - and medium - term downward pressure [7] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operational Suggestions - Market Review: WTI's opening price was $65.62, closing at $63.77, with a decline of 2.77%. Brent opened at $69.1 and closed at $67.39, down 2.53%. SC (in yuan/barrel) opened at 487 and closed at 481, a 2.2% drop. Market news indicates that OPEC+ is considering continuing to increase production from October at the meeting on the 7th, which led to a sharp overnight decline in oil prices. US crude and refined product inventories decreased as of the week ending the 22nd, supporting oil prices to some extent. However, the US travel peak season is ending, refinery operating rates have slightly declined, and there may be insufficient positive factors for oil prices in the future. US gasoline consumption this summer has not improved significantly despite lower prices compared to last year [6] - Operational Suggestions: Overall, with weak US peak - season consumption and the market's digestion of the US interest - rate cut expectation, oil prices are expected to continue to oscillate at the bottom. The report recommends a bearish approach, closely watching the OPEC+ meeting [7] 2. Industry News - Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak said that an additional increase in oil production by 8 OPEC+ countries is not currently on the agenda, and a decision will be made during the meeting - Sources said that OPEC+ will consider increasing oil production again at the Sunday meeting - The US hopes that Europe will stop buying Russian oil and join its proposed sanctions against countries that continue to buy Russian oil - Citi slightly lowered its average Brent crude price forecast for 2026 to $62 per barrel (previously $65 per barrel) [8] 3. Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including global high - frequency crude oil inventories, WTI and Brent fund positions, Dtd Brent price, WTI and Oman spot prices, US crude oil production growth rate, and EIA crude oil inventories, with data sources from Bloomberg, wind, CFTC, and EIA [10][12][20][23]