大越期货聚烯烃早报-20250905

Report Overview - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report - Report Date: September 5, 2025 - Report Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to show a volatile trend today. The overall fundamentals are neutral, with both positive and negative factors present. The main influencing factors include cost, demand, and domestic macro - policies, while the main risk points are significant fluctuations in crude oil prices and international policy games [4][7][8] Summary by Content LLDPE Analysis - Fundamentals: In August, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. In July, exports were $321.78 billion, a year - on - year increase of 7.2%. A comprehensive reform plan for the petrochemical and refining industries is being formulated, expected to be introduced in September. The start - up of agricultural film enterprises has increased slightly, but overall demand is still weaker than in previous years. Other packaging films have seen increased demand due to the approaching peak season. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7,200 yuan (- 30 yuan), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4] - Basis: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is - 25, and the premium/discount ratio is - 0.3%, neutral [4] - Inventory: The comprehensive PE inventory is 509,000 tons (+ 23,000 tons), neutral [4] - Market: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, bearish [4] - Main Position: The net long position of the LLDPE main contract is increasing, bullish [4] - Expectation: The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate today. Although the demand for agricultural film is recovering, it is still weaker than in previous years, and the industrial inventory is neutral [4] - Factors: Bullish factors include cost support and anti - involution policies; bearish factors include weak demand [6] PP Analysis - Fundamentals: Similar to LLDPE in terms of macro - data. New PP production capacity has been put into operation, and downstream demand in industries such as pipes and plastic weaving has improved as the peak season approaches. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6,900 yuan (- 50 yuan), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [8] - Basis: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is - 39, and the premium/discount ratio is - 0.6%, bearish [8] - Inventory: The comprehensive PP inventory is 582,000 tons (+ 43,000 tons), bearish [8] - Market: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, bearish [8] - Main Position: The net long position of the PP main contract is increasing, bullish [8] - Expectation: The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate today. There is new production capacity, downstream demand has improved, and the industrial inventory is neutral [8] - Factors: Bullish factors include cost support and anti - involution policies; bearish factors include weak demand [9] Market Data - LLDPE: The current spot price of delivery products is 7,200 yuan (- 30 yuan), the price of the 01 contract is 7,225 yuan (- 22 yuan), the basis is - 25 (- 8), the warehouse receipt is 8,263 (unchanged), the comprehensive PE factory inventory is 509,000 tons (+ 23,000 tons), and the PE social inventory is 561,000 tons (- 2,000 tons) [11] - PP: The current spot price of delivery products is 6,900 yuan (- 50 yuan), the price of the 01 contract is 6,939 yuan (- 15 yuan), the basis is - 39 (- 35), the warehouse receipt is 13,795 (- 7), the comprehensive PP factory inventory is 582,000 tons (+ 43,000 tons), and the PP social inventory is 286,000 tons (+ 26,000 tons) [11] Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - Polyethylene: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polyethylene have generally shown an upward trend. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 4.3195 million tons, with a growth rate of 20.5% [16] - Polypropylene: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polypropylene have also generally increased. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 4.906 million tons, with a growth rate of 11.0% [18]