大越期货尿素早报-20250905

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The urea market is currently in a state of overall oversupply in China, with high daily production and inventory levels. Industrial demand for compound fertilizers and melamine is at a moderate level, while agricultural demand is limited. Although the export profit is strong, the export policy has not been liberalized beyond expectations. The international urea price is strong, and the urea futures market is expected to fluctuate today [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Urea Overview - Fundamentals: The urea futures price has recently declined after a previous increase due to rumors of export liberalization. Current daily production and operating rates are still high, and inventory is at a high level overall. The domestic urea market remains in a significant oversupply situation. The spot price of the delivery product is 1780 (-10), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - Basis: The basis of the UR2601 contract is 66, with a premium - discount ratio of 3.7%, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - Inventory: The UR comprehensive inventory is 140.2 million tons (-3.5), indicating a bearish signal [4]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is flat, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - Main Position: The net long position of the UR main contract is decreasing, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - Expectation: The main urea contract is expected to fluctuate today, with a strong international price, non - over - expected export policy liberalization, and a significant domestic oversupply situation [4]. Factors Affecting the Market - Bullish Factors: The international urea price is strong [5]. - Bearish Factors: High operating rates and daily production, and weak domestic demand [5]. - Main Logic: The marginal changes in international prices and domestic demand [5]. Market Data - Spot Market: The spot price of the delivery product is 1780 (-10), the Shandong spot price is 1780 (-10), the Henan spot price is 1790 (0), and the FOB China price is 3031 [6]. - Futures Market: The price of the UR01 contract is 1714 (0), the basis is 66 (-10), the price of the UR05 contract is 1753 (-4), and the price of the UR09 contract is 1664 (6) [6]. - Inventory: The warehouse receipt is 7928 (723), the UR comprehensive inventory is 140.2 million tons (-3.5), the UR manufacturer inventory is 85.9 million tons, and the UR port inventory is 54.3 million tons [6]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2018 to 2024, the urea production capacity has been increasing year - by - year, with growth rates ranging from 8.4% to 15.5%. The apparent consumption and actual consumption have also generally shown an upward trend, with consumption growth rates ranging from 0.3% to 17.9%. The import dependence has fluctuated between 8.4% and 19.3%. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 4906, with an 11.0% growth rate [9].