贵金属早报-20250905

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The slowdown in US ADP employment growth has led to a softening of the US job market, increasing expectations of interest rate cuts, but the domestic risk appetite has significantly cooled, causing gold prices to fluctuate and close lower. The premium of Shanghai gold continues to converge, and gold prices remain relatively strong due to concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve approaching the September meeting [4]. - The weakening of domestic risk preference has caused silver prices to decline. However, the slowdown in US ADP employment growth and the softening of the job market have increased expectations of interest rate cuts, providing support for silver prices. Silver prices remain relatively strong following gold prices [6]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - Gold: The US ADP employment growth slowed significantly. US stocks closed higher, European stocks had mixed results, US bond yields fell, the US dollar index rose, and the offshore RMB appreciated slightly against the US dollar. COMEX gold futures fell 0.91% to $3602.40 per ounce. The gold basis shows that the spot is at a discount to the futures. Gold futures warehouse receipts increased by 3003 kilograms to 43254 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the k - line is above the 20 - day moving average. The main net position is long, and the main long positions increased [4][5]. - Silver: The US ADP employment growth slowed significantly, risk preference declined, and silver prices fell. US stocks closed higher, European stocks had mixed results, US bond yields fell, the US dollar index rose, and the offshore RMB appreciated slightly against the US dollar. COMEX silver futures fell 1.77% to $41.32 per ounce. The silver basis shows that the spot is at a discount to the futures. Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts increased by 11811 kilograms to 1227039 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the k - line is above the 20 - day moving average. The main net position is long, but the main long positions decreased [6]. 2. Daily Tips - Gold: The expected factors include US non - farm payrolls, the final value of the Eurozone's Q2 GDP, speeches by Fed members, and China's August foreign exchange reserves on Sunday. The slowdown in US ADP employment growth and other data indicate a softening job market, increasing expectations of interest rate cuts. The premium of Shanghai gold continues to converge. Gold prices remain relatively strong due to concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve approaching the September meeting [4]. - Silver: The slowdown in US ADP employment growth and the softening of the job market increase expectations of interest rate cuts, providing support for silver prices. The premium of Shanghai silver remains at around 420 yuan per kilogram. Silver prices remain relatively strong following gold prices [6]. 3. Today's Focus - 07:00: Speech by Chicago Fed President Goolsbee (2025 FOMC voter) [15]. - Time TBD: 2025 World Intelligent Industry Expo from September 5 - 8 [15]. - 14:00: UK retail sales for July [15]. - 17:00: Final value of the Eurozone's Q2 GDP [15]. - 20:30: US August non - farm payroll report (including employment population, unemployment rate, average hourly wage) and Canada's August employment report [15]. - Sunday: China's August foreign exchange reserves and an OPEC + meeting of eight oil - producing countries on oil production policies [15]. 4. Fundamental Data - Gold: The basis is - 4.38, with the spot at a discount to the futures. The gold futures warehouse receipts are 43254 kilograms, an increase of 3003 kilograms [5]. - Silver: The basis is - 4, with the spot at a discount to the futures. Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts are 1227039 kilograms, a daily increase of 11811 kilograms [6]. 5. Position Data - Gold: The main net position is long, and the main long positions increased [5]. - Silver: The main net position is long, but the main long positions decreased [6].