LPG早报-20250905

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - PG main contract oscillates weakly, with the cheapest deliverable being East China civil LPG at 4481. The basis first weakens and then strengthens to 70 (+59). The September - October spread is -721 (-212), and the October - November spread is 87 (+7). The registered warrant volume is 13,207 lots (+320). The official September CP price remains stable, with propane and butane at 520/490. The FEI, CP monthly spreads oscillate, the MB monthly spread strengthens, and the oil - gas ratio changes little. The internal - external price difference oscillates. The US - Asia arbitrage window oscillates and closes. The port inventory decreases, the refinery commercial volume increases by 2.47%, and the factory inventory increases but is overall controllable. The PDH operating rate is 73.02% (-2.64 pct), Wanhua Phase II is under maintenance, and Quanzhou Guoheng restarts at the end of the week. Next week, Quanzhou Guoheng is expected to increase its load, and Hebei Haiwei plans to shut down. The alkylation operating rate is 48.42% (+0.74), and the MTBE operating rate is 63.54% (+0). The combustion season is gradually ending, but the demand remains weak. The East China region, as the cheapest delivery area, is expected to have tight supply, improved demand, and increased import costs, with an overall stable and upward trend [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Data | Date | South China LPG | East China LPG | Shandong LPG | Propane CFR South China | Propane CIF Japan | MB Propane Spot | CP Forecast Contract Price | Shandong Ether - after C4 | Shandong Alkylated Oil | Paper Import Profit | Main Contract Basis | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/08/29 | 4620 | 4481 | 4540 | 580 | 541 | 69 | 515 | 4990 | 7820 | -133 | 170 | | 2025/09/01 | 4580 | 4486 | 4540 | 583 | 545 | - | 531 | 4900 | 7770 | -201 | 188 | | 2025/09/02 | 4540 | 4486 | 4560 | 590 | 550 | 72 | 540 | 4890 | 7790 | -297 | 119 | | 2025/09/03 | 4520 | 4486 | 4580 | 592 | 557 | 72 | 542 | 4890 | 7810 | -335 | 104 | | 2025/09/04 | 4540 | 4490 | 4580 | 585 | 550 | 71 | 542 | 4880 | 7790 | -259 | 172 | | Daily Change | 20 | 4 | 0 | -7 | -7 | -1 | 0 | -10 | -20 | 76 | 68 | On Thursday, the cheapest deliverable is East China civil LPG at 4490. FEI and CP weaken, PP weakens, the paper - making profit of FEI and CP for PP increases slightly, and the CP production cost is slightly lower than that of FEI. The PG market weakens significantly, and the October - November spread is 71 (+1). The US - Far East arbitrage window opens [1]. Weekly Viewpoint The PG main contract oscillates weakly. The cheapest deliverable is East China civil LPG at 4481. The basis first weakens and then strengthens to 70 (+59). The September - October spread is -721 (-212), and the October - November spread is 87 (+7). The registered warrant volume is 13,207 lots (+320), with Qingdao Yunda - 55, Wuzhongda - 65, and Donghua +440. The official September CP price remains stable, with propane and butane at 520/490. The FEI, CP monthly spreads oscillate, the MB monthly spread strengthens, and the oil - gas ratio changes little. The internal - external price difference oscillates, PG - CP reaches 106, and PG - FEI reaches 85. FEI - CP reaches 21.5 (+4.5), and the US - Asia arbitrage window oscillates and closes. AFEI's offshore discount is 5.5 (-0.5), and the CP South China arrival discount is 65 (+8). The freight rate remains flat, the waiting time at the Panama Canal decreases, but the auction fee remains high. FEI - MOPJ expands to -56 (-10), and the naphtha crack spread strengthens slightly. The PDH spot profit changes little, and the paper profit oscillates downward. The production gross profit of alkylated oil declines. The MTBE gross profit decreases. Fundamentally, the port inventory decreases, the refinery commercial volume increases by 2.47%, and the factory inventory increases but is overall controllable. The PDH operating rate is 73.02% (-2.64 pct), Wanhua Phase II is under maintenance, and Quanzhou Guoheng restarts at the end of the week. Next week, Quanzhou Guoheng is expected to increase its load, and Hebei Haiwei plans to shut down. The alkylation operating rate is 48.42% (+0.74), and the MTBE operating rate is 63.54% (+0). The combustion season is gradually ending, but the demand remains weak. The East China region, as the cheapest delivery area, is expected to have tight supply, improved demand, and increased import costs, with an overall stable and upward trend [1].