大越期货燃料油早报-20250905

Report Summary Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market structure has weakened. The spot spread of Singapore 380CST high - sulfur fuel oil turned negative again after a two - month premium. The sufficient inventory has been suppressing the market fundamentals, and the premium of Singapore's 0.5% sulfur marine fuel terminal delivery term contract weakened slightly in September. - With OPEC+ not reaching a consensus on whether to increase production before the meeting and market confidence damaged, fuel oil is following crude oil in low - level operation. The expected operating range for FU2510 is 2740 - 2790, and for LU2511 is 3380 - 3430 [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - Fundamentals: The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market structure is weak, and the low - sulfur fuel oil premium has weakened. The downstream marine fuel demand provides some support, but inventory pressure persists. - Basis: Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil basis is 154 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur is 183 yuan/ton, with spot premiums over futures. - Inventory: Singapore fuel oil inventory in the week of September 3 was 23.309 billion barrels, an increase of 1.42 billion barrels. - Market: Prices are above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is flat. - Main Positions: High - sulfur main positions are short with an increase in shorts; low - sulfur main positions are long with a shift from short to long. - Expectations: Fuel oil will operate in the range of 2740 - 2790 for FU2510 and 3380 - 3430 for LU2511 [3]. 2. Multi - Short Concerns - Likely to Rise: There is a possibility of increased sanctions against Russia. - Likely to Fall: The optimism on the demand side remains to be verified, and the upstream crude oil price is weak. The market is driven by the impact of geopolitical risks on the supply side and neutral demand [4]. 3. Fundamental Data - Futures Quotes: The price of the FU main contract futures decreased by 13 to 2828, a decrease of 0.46%. The LU main contract futures price decreased by 17 to 3525, a decrease of 0.48%. The basis of FU increased by 25 to 108, an increase of 29.81%. The basis of LU increased by 92 to 132, an increase of 224.99% [5]. - Spot Quotes: The price of Zhoushan high - sulfur fuel oil decreased by 5 to 520, a decrease of 0.95%. The price of Zhoushan low - sulfur fuel oil decreased by 18.06 to 187.63, a decrease of 8.78%. The price of Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil increased by 2.29 to 400.92, an increase of 0.57%. The price of Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil increased by 6 to 498.5, an increase of 1.22%. The price of Middle - East high - sulfur fuel oil increased by 1.69 to 379.33, an increase of 0.45%. The price of Singapore diesel increased by 13.78 to 639.02, an increase of 2.20% [6]. 4. Inventory Data - Singapore fuel oil inventory on September 3 was 23.309 billion barrels, an increase of 1.42 billion barrels compared to the previous period. The inventory showed an upward trend in the week of September 3 [3][8].