建信期货集运指数日报-20250905

Report Information - Report Title: "集运指数日报" [1] - Date: September 5, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. Core View - The SCFIS dropped below 1800 points in the current week, marking the seventh consecutive week of decline. Online quotes for the first half of September were further reduced, with the lowest price falling below $2000 per 40 - foot container. The price of the European route shows a characteristic of smooth decline in the off - season, and the decline exceeds market expectations, putting significant pressure on the October contract. However, the current main 10 - contract has a deep discount, with sufficient expectations for price cuts. The oversold rebound on Tuesday might be boosted by the expectation of increased empty sailings during the National Day. But since the scale of empty sailings this year has not significantly exceeded that of last year and the overall shipping capacity has actually increased, the boosting effect may not be strong enough. There may be low - buying opportunities in December, and the 10 - contract is recommended to be short - allocated on rallies [8]. Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The SCFIS has fallen below 1800 points for seven consecutive weeks. Online quotes in early September have been further reduced. The price of the Shanghai - Rotterdam route shows a smooth decline in the off - season, which puts pressure on the 10 - contract. The 10 - contract is deeply discounted, and the oversold rebound on Tuesday may be due to the expectation of increased National Day empty sailings. However, the boosting effect may be limited. The 10 - contract is recommended to be short - allocated on rallies, and there may be low - buying opportunities in December [8]. 2. Industry News - From August 25th to August 29th, the overall China export container shipping market was stable, with different routes showing divergent trends. The comprehensive index rose slightly. The European route's market sentiment was weak, with the freight rate falling. The Mediterranean route followed the European route, with the freight rate dropping. The North American route's freight rate rebounded. There were also geopolitical events in the Middle East and the US's statement on the Palestinian issue [9][10]. 3. Data Overview 3.1 Spot Freight Rates for Container Shipping - The Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index for the European route decreased from 1990.2 on August 25th to 1773.6 on September 1st, a decrease of 10.9%. The index for the US - West route decreased from 1041.38 to 1013.9, a decrease of 2.6% [12]. 3.2 Futures Market for Container Shipping Index (European Route) - Provided trading data for EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, and EC2608 contracts on September 4th, including opening price, closing price, settlement price, price change, trading volume, open interest, and change in open interest [6].