工业硅期货早报-20250905

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, the supply is expected to increase slightly, demand recovery remains weak, and cost support is rising. The 2511 contract is expected to oscillate between 8385 - 8645 [6]. - For polysilicon, supply production scheduling is decreasing, while demand in silicon wafers, battery cells, and components is increasing. The overall demand shows continuous recovery, and cost support is weakening. The 2511 contract is expected to oscillate between 51175 - 53215 [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week's supply was 90,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week. Production scheduling is expected to increase and stay around the historical average [6]. - Demand: Last week's demand was 81,000 tons, a 1.21% decrease from the previous week. Demand remains sluggish, especially in polysilicon [6]. - Inventory: Silicon inventory is at a low level of 211,000 tons, organic silicon inventory is at a high level of 73,200 tons, and aluminum alloy ingot inventory is at a high level of 54,600 tons [6]. - Cost: In Xinjiang, the production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 is 3254 yuan/ton, and cost support has weakened during the wet season [6]. - Basis: On September 4th, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 8950 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 435 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - Inventory: Social inventory decreased by 0.73% to 537,000 tons, sample enterprise inventory decreased by 1.55% to 170,800 tons, and major port inventory decreased by 1.68% to 117,000 tons [6]. - Disk: The MA20 is downward, and the 11 - contract futures price closed below the MA20 [6]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, with short positions decreasing [6]. - Polysilicon - Supply: Last week's production was 30,200 tons, a 2.58% decrease from the previous week. The production scheduling for September is expected to be 126,700 tons, a 3.79% decrease from the previous month [8]. - Demand: Last week, silicon wafer production was 13.31GW, a 8.29% increase from the previous week, and inventory increased by 3.67% to 180,500 tons. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss state. In September, production scheduling for silicon wafers, battery cells, and components is expected to increase [9]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 34,650 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 15,350 yuan/ton [9]. - Basis: On September 4th, the basis of the 11 - contract was - 695 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [9]. - Inventory: Weekly inventory decreased by 0.93% to 211,000 tons, at a historical low [9]. - Disk: The MA20 is upward, and the 11 - contract futures price closed above the MA20 [9]. - Main Position: The main position is net long, with long positions decreasing [9]. 3.2 Market Overview - Industrial Silicon: Prices of most contracts showed minor fluctuations, with some contracts slightly up or down. Inventory in different regions and ports showed various trends, with some decreasing and some increasing slightly [15]. - Polysilicon: Prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components were mostly stable, with some minor changes. Inventory and production also showed different trends [17]. 3.3 Downstream Industry Analysis - Organic Silicon - Price and Production: DMC daily capacity utilization remained unchanged at 70.59%, lower than the historical average. The price and profit of DMC and its downstream products showed different trends [42][44]. - Inventory and Trade: DMC monthly inventory increased by 34.81% to 73,200 tons, and export and import volumes showed different trends over time [42][48]. - Aluminum Alloy - Price and Supply: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained stable, and the cost and profit of imported ADC12 showed minor changes. The supply side, including scrap aluminum recycling, inventory, and imports, showed different trends [51]. - Inventory and Production: The monthly production of primary and recycled aluminum alloy ingots showed different trends, and the weekly operating rates of primary and recycled aluminum alloys also varied [54]. - Demand: Automobile monthly production and aluminum alloy wheel exports showed different trends over time [55]. - Polysilicon - Fundamentals: The industry cost of polysilicon showed an upward trend, and prices, inventory, production, and demand showed different trends [59]. - Supply - Demand Balance: The supply - demand balance of polysilicon showed different states in different months, with some months having a surplus and some having a deficit [62]. - Downstream Segments - Silicon Wafers: Prices, production, inventory, and net exports of silicon wafers showed different trends [65]. - Battery Cells: Prices, production, inventory, and exports of battery cells showed different trends [68]. - Photovoltaic Components: Prices, inventory, production, and exports of photovoltaic components showed different trends [71]. - Photovoltaic Accessories: Prices, production, and trade of photovoltaic accessories such as coatings, films, glass, and quartz sand showed different trends [74]. - Component Cost - Profit: The cost and profit of components and their components (silicon materials, silicon wafers, battery cells) showed different trends [76].