大越期货豆粕早报-20250905

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - For soybean meal, the short - term outlook is a volatile and slightly bullish pattern. The US soybean production area weather and Sino - US trade negotiations are the key factors. The M2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 3020 and 3080 [8]. - For soybeans, the short - term situation is affected by multiple factors. The A2511 contract is expected to oscillate between 3920 and 4020 [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints No relevant content provided. 2. Recent News - Sino - US tariff negotiation progress is short - term positive for US soybeans. The US soybean market is expected to oscillate above the 1000 - point mark, awaiting further guidance on US soybean growth, harvesting, imports, and Sino - US tariff negotiations [12]. - China's imported soybean arrivals remained high in August. Affected by the relatively positive data in the August USDA report and the rise in rapeseed meal, soybean meal is expected to be slightly bullish in the short term [12]. - The decline in domestic pig - farming profits has led to low expectations for pig restocking. The recent recovery in soybean meal demand supports its price. Due to the uncertainty of Sino - US trade negotiations, soybean meal has returned to a range - bound pattern [12]. - The continued rise in domestic oil - mill soybean meal inventory, the possibility of weather speculation in the US soybean production area, and the variables in the Sino - US tariff war have made soybean meal oscillate slightly bullishly in the short term, awaiting further clarity on South American soybean production and the follow - up of the Sino - US tariff war [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, relatively low domestic oil - mill soybean meal inventory, and uncertain weather in the US soybean production area [13]. - Bearish factors: High volume of imported soybeans arriving in July, the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest, and the continuous expectation of a bumper South American soybean harvest [13]. Soybeans - Bullish factors: Cost support from imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand [14]. - Bearish factors: Continuous expectation of a bumper Brazilian soybean harvest and China's increased purchase of Brazilian soybeans, as well as the expected increase in the output of new domestic soybeans [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - Soybean Meal: The spot price in East China is 2970, with a basis of - 78, indicating a discount to the futures. The oil - mill soybean meal inventory is 105.33 million tons, a 3.8% increase from last week and a 29.71% decrease compared to the same period last year [8]. - Soybeans: The spot price is 4200, with a basis of 235, indicating a premium to the futures. The oil - mill soybean inventory is 682.53 million tons, a 0.31% increase from last week and a 5.46% decrease compared to the same period last year [10]. 5. Position Data - For soybean meal, the main long positions decreased while capital flowed in [8]. - For soybeans, the main long positions decreased and capital flowed out [10].