大越期货碳酸锂期货早报-20250905

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand imbalance due to capacity mismatch leads to a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change. The main logic is that the supply of ore/salt lake remains at a high level with limited decline, while the demand from the power battery end shows insufficient willingness to take delivery. However, there are also some positive factors such as manufacturers' stop - production and reduction plans, a decline in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile, and a decrease in the import volume of spodumene [8][9][13][14]. - The lithium carbonate 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 71,840 - 75,000 [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - Supply side: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 19,419 tons, a 2.04% increase compared to the previous week, higher than the historical average. It is predicted that the production in September 2025 will be 86,730 tons, a 1.75% increase compared to August. The import volume in August was 17,000 tons, and it is predicted to be 19,500 tons in September, a 14.71% increase [8][9]. - Demand side: Last week, the inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate was 94,756 tons, a 0.28% increase compared to the previous week, and the inventory of sample enterprises of ternary materials was 17,644 tons, a 1.05% decrease compared to the previous week. It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month, and the inventory may be reduced [8][9]. - Inventory: The smelter inventory was 39,475 tons, a 8.90% decrease compared to the previous week, lower than the historical average; the downstream inventory was 55,207 tons, a 4.56% increase compared to the previous week, higher than the historical average; other inventories were 45,410 tons, a 0.91% increase compared to the previous week, higher than the historical average; the total inventory was 140,092 tons, a 0.73% decrease compared to the previous week, higher than the historical average [9]. - Market: MA20 is upward, and the price of the 11 - contract closed below MA20 [9]. - Main position: The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing [9]. - Factors: Positive factors include manufacturers' stop - production and reduction plans, a decline in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile, and a decrease in the import volume of spodumene; negative factors include high - level supply from ore/salt lake ends with limited decline and insufficient willingness to take delivery from the power battery end [12][13] 3.2 Fundamentals/Position Data - Cost: The cost of externally purchased spodumene concentrate was 75,475 yuan/ton, a 0.11% increase compared to the previous day, resulting in a loss of 1,567 yuan/ton; the cost of externally purchased lithium mica was 78,868 yuan/ton, a 0.58% decrease compared to the previous day, resulting in a loss of 6,991 yuan/ton; the production cost at the recycling end is close to that of the ore end, with average production enthusiasm; the quarterly cash production cost at the salt - lake end is 31,745 yuan/ton, significantly lower than that of the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [11]. - Basis: On September 4, 2025, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 75,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 1,580 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [11].