大越期货沥青期货早报-20250905

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply side: In August 2025, the total planned production volume of domestic asphalt was 2413,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt decreased by 1.44 percentage points month - on - month, the sample enterprise output decreased by 4.37% month - on - month, and the sample enterprise device maintenance volume increased by 5.25% month - on - month. Refineries reduced production this week, but supply pressure may increase next week [8]. - Demand side: The current demand is lower than the historical average level. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 decreased by 0.05 percentage points month - on - month, the building asphalt开工率 remained flat month - on - month, the modified asphalt开工率 increased by 0.15 percentage points month - on - month, the road - modified asphalt开工率 remained flat month - on - month, and the waterproofing membrane开工率 increased by 3.26 percentage points month - on - month [8]. - Cost side: The daily asphalt processing profit increased by 5.60% month - on - month, the weekly Shandong local refinery delayed coking profit decreased by 6.05% month - on - month, the asphalt processing loss increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreased. Crude oil weakened, and it is expected that the support will weaken in the short term [9]. - Expectation: Refineries have reduced production recently, and the overall demand recovery is less than expected and sluggish; inventory remains flat; crude oil weakens, and the cost support weakens in the short term. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, and asphalt 2511 will fluctuate in the range of 3447 - 3489 [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - Supply: The planned production volume in August decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. This week, refineries reduced production, with a decrease in capacity utilization rate and output and an increase in maintenance volume. Supply pressure may increase next week [8]. - Demand: The开工率 of various types of asphalt is mostly lower than the historical average, indicating weak demand [8]. - Cost: The asphalt processing profit and the profit difference with delayed coking changed, and crude oil weakening may lead to weaker support [9]. - Likely factors: Positive factors include relatively high crude oil costs providing some support; negative factors include insufficient demand for high - price goods and overall downward demand with strengthened expectations of economic recession in Europe and the United States [13][14]. - Main logic: Supply pressure remains high, and demand recovery is weak [15]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - Base difference: On September 4th, the Shandong spot price was 3540 yuan/ton, and the 11 - contract base difference was 98 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is positive [11]. - Inventory: Social inventory decreased by 1.70% month - on - month, factory inventory decreased by 5.86% month - on - month, and port diluted asphalt inventory increased by 26.67% month - on - month. Social and factory inventories are in a destocking state, while port inventory is in a stocking state, which is neutral [11]. - Futures price trend: MA20 is downward, and the 11 - contract futures price closed below MA20, which is negative [11]. - Main position: The main position is net long, but the long position decreased, which is positive [11]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market Analysis - Base difference trend: The report shows the historical trends of Shandong and East China base differences [20]. - Spread analysis: - Main - contract spread: The report shows the historical trends of 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads [23]. - Asphalt - crude oil price trend: The report shows the historical trends of asphalt, Brent oil, and West Texas oil prices [26]. - Crude oil cracking spread: The report shows the historical trends of asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent cracking spreads [29]. - Asphalt - crude oil - fuel oil price ratio trend: The report shows the historical trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil price ratios [33]. 3.4 Asphalt Spot Market Analysis - Regional market price trend: The report shows the historical trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt price [36]. 3.5 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit analysis: - Asphalt profit: The report shows the historical trend of asphalt profit [38]. - Coking - asphalt profit spread trend: The report shows the historical trend of the coking - asphalt profit spread [41]. - Supply - side analysis: - Shipment volume: The report shows the historical trend of weekly shipment volume [44]. - Diluted asphalt port inventory: The report shows the historical trend of domestic diluted asphalt port inventory [46]. - Output: The report shows the historical trends of weekly and monthly output [49]. - Marey crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly output trend: The report shows the historical trends of Marey crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly output [53]. - Local refinery asphalt output: The report shows the historical trend of local refinery asphalt output [56]. - 开工率: The report shows the historical trend of weekly开工率 [59]. - Maintenance loss volume estimate: The report shows the historical trend of maintenance loss volume estimate [61]. - Inventory analysis: - Exchange warehouse receipts: The report shows the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) [64]. - Social inventory and factory inventory: The report shows the historical trends of social inventory (70 samples) and factory inventory (54 samples) [68]. - Factory inventory inventory ratio: The report shows the historical trend of the factory inventory inventory ratio [71]. - Import - export situation: The report shows the historical trends of asphalt export, import, and the import price difference from South Korea [74][77]. - Demand - side analysis: - Petroleum coke output: The report shows the historical trend of petroleum coke output [80]. - Apparent consumption: The report shows the historical trend of apparent consumption [83]. - Downstream demand: The report shows the historical trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year [86]. - Downstream machinery demand: The report shows the historical trends of asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly working hours, domestic excavator sales, and roller sales [90]. - Asphalt开工率: The report shows the historical trends of heavy - traffic asphalt开工率, asphalt开工率 by use, and downstream开工率 (such as shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt) [95][98][99]. - Supply - demand balance sheet: The report provides the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to August 2025 [104].