大越期货菜粕早报-20250905

Report Summary Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - The rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to oscillate in the range of 2480 - 2540. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. In the short term, the rapeseed meal is in a slightly stronger oscillating pattern, but there are still variables in the final anti - dumping ruling from Canada, which may cause it to rise and then fall [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips - Rapeseed meal futures oscillate and decline, while the spot price is relatively stable, with a slight increase in the spot premium. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuates slightly, and the price difference of the 2601 contract between soybean meal and rapeseed meal oscillates weakly. The import volume of rapeseed in August is lower than expected, and the import cost fluctuates slightly. The rapeseed inventory in oil mills rebounds from a low level, the rapeseed meal inventory decreases slightly, and the rapeseed crushing volume in oil mills decreases slightly [17][19][22]. 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the peak season. The listing of domestic rapeseed has improved the expectation of tight supply in the spot market, and the demand side maintains a good expectation. China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports has been established, and an import deposit of 75.8% has been imposed. The global rapeseed output has decreased slightly this year, mainly affected by the reduction in EU rapeseed output and the lower - than - expected output in Canada. The Russia - Ukraine conflict is still ongoing, and there is still a possibility of an increase in global geopolitical conflicts, which still supports commodities [11]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Bullish factors: The preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the low inventory pressure of rapeseed meal in oil mills. Bearish factors: The concentrated listing of domestic rapeseed in June and the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping result on Canadian rapeseed imports [12]. 4. Fundamental Data - Supply and Demand: The demand for rapeseed meal spot is in the peak season in the short term, and the low inventory supports the market. However, after the National Day, the demand for rapeseed meal will gradually enter the off - season, and there are still variables in the China - Canada trade negotiation [9]. - Price: The spot price of rapeseed meal is 2580, with a basis of 61, indicating a premium over the futures. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuates slightly, and the 2601 contract price difference oscillates weakly [9][19]. - Inventory: The rapeseed meal inventory is 21,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 17.65% from 25,500 tons last week and a year - on - year decrease of 25% compared with 28,000 tons in the same period last year. The rapeseed inventory in oil mills rebounds from a low level, and the rapeseed meal inventory decreases slightly [9][24]. 5. Position Data - The short positions of the main players increase, and the funds flow in, showing a bearish signal [9].