大越期货PVC期货早报-20250905

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the PVC industry is bearish [11] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view on PVC is bearish. The main logic is the strong overall supply pressure and the poor recovery of domestic demand. There are both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits. Negative factors include the rebound of overall supply pressure, high inventory levels with slow consumption, and weak domestic and external demand [11][13][14] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Views - The daily view on PVC is bearish. Positive factors are supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits. Negative factors are the rebound of overall supply pressure, high inventory levels with slow consumption, and weak domestic and external demand. The main logic is the strong overall supply pressure and the poor recovery of domestic demand [11][13][14] 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - Supply Side: In July 2025, PVC production was 2.00461 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.67%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises was 76.02%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.02 percentage points. The production of calcium carbide enterprises was 330,135 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.57%, and the production of ethylene enterprises was 125,160 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.34%. This week, the supply pressure decreased. Next week, it is expected that maintenance will decrease and production scheduling will increase slightly [7] - Demand Side: The overall downstream operating rate was 42.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.10 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream profile operating rate was 42.6%, a month - on - month increase of 0.95 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The downstream pipe operating rate was 33.61%, unchanged from the previous month, lower than the historical average. The downstream film operating rate was 70.77%, unchanged from the previous month, higher than the historical average. The downstream paste resin operating rate was 69.26%, a month - on - month decrease of 8.27 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to decline, and domestic PVC export prices are competitive. Current demand may remain sluggish [7] - Cost Side: The profit of calcium carbide method was - 399.2026 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase in losses of 79.20%, lower than the historical average. The profit of ethylene method was - 627.9512 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase in losses of 6.10%, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2,667.05 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease in profit of 1.00%, lower than the historical average. Production scheduling may be under pressure [8] - Basis: On September 4th, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4,730 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 153 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [9] - Inventory: Factory inventory was 312,148 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.00%. Calcium carbide factory inventory was 242,148 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.07%. Ethylene factory inventory was 70,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.54%. Social inventory was 521,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.73%. The inventory days of production enterprises in stock were 5.2 days, a month - on - month increase of 1.96% [9] - Market: MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below MA20 [9] - Main Position: The main position is net short, and short positions increased [9] - Expectation: The cost of calcium carbide method and ethylene method is weakening, and the overall cost is weakening. This week, the supply pressure decreased. Next week, it is expected that maintenance will decrease and production scheduling will increase. The overall inventory is at a high level, and current demand may remain sluggish. Continuously monitor macro - policies and export trends. PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4,853 - 4,913 [9] 3.3 PVC Market Overview - The report provides a detailed overview of the previous day's PVC market, including prices, price changes, inventory levels, operating rates, and cost - profit data for different types of PVC products and related production methods [15] 3.4 PVC Futures Market - The report includes analyses of the basis trend, price trend, trading volume, open interest, and spread analysis of PVC futures contracts [18][21][24] 3.5 PVC Fundamental Analysis - Calcium Carbide Method - Related Factors: Analyzes the price, cost - profit, operating rate, inventory, and production of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, caustic soda, and the cost - profit of the chlor - alkali industry [27][30][32][35][37] - PVC Supply Trend: Analyzes the capacity utilization rate, profit, daily production, weekly maintenance volume, and weekly production of PVC production enterprises using calcium carbide and ethylene methods [39][41] - Demand Trend: Analyzes the daily sales volume of traders, weekly pre - sales volume, production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, and operating rates of different downstream products of PVC, as well as the relationship between PVC demand and real estate investment, social financing scale, and infrastructure investment [43][45][47][49][52][53][55][56] - Inventory: Analyzes the exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide factory inventory, ethylene factory inventory, social inventory, and inventory days of production enterprises [57] - Ethylene Method - Related Factors: Analyzes the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, and price differences related to the ethylene method [59] - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: Presents the monthly supply - demand trends of PVC, including export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and import data for 2024 and 2025 [62]