建信期货铝日报-20250905

Report Summary 1. Report Information - Report Title: Aluminum Daily Report - Date: September 5, 2025 - Research Team: Non - ferrous Metals Research Team of Jianxin Futures, including researchers Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, and Peng Jinglin [1][2][3] 2. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 3. Core Viewpoints - On September 4, Shanghai aluminum prices continued to decline, with the main contract closing at 20,605, a 0.77% drop from the previous day. The 09 - 10 spread changed from a discount to a premium of 15, and the far - month contracts still showed a contango structure. The import window remained closed, with a spot import loss of - 1,320 yuan/ton [7]. - The decline in futures prices boosted market activity, with an increase in downstream rigid - demand purchases. The spot premium and discount both improved. The cast aluminum alloy followed the trend of Shanghai aluminum, with the AD - AL negative spread at - 385. With the approaching traditional peak season and the termination of the tax refund policy in the scrap aluminum industry, which increased industry costs, the cast aluminum alloy is expected to strengthen, and the strategy of going long on AD and short on AL can be maintained [7]. - The weak fundamentals of alumina pushed its price below the 3,000 mark, and it is expected to remain weak in the short term, but the downside space is limited. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remains high. Although the peak season is approaching, the consumption side has only marginally improved, and inventories have not been effectively depleted and are still accumulating. Overall, the weakening macro - environment and the fact that the aluminum fundamentals have not emerged from the off - season have put pressure on aluminum prices to decline again. Future attention should be paid to the performance of the consumption side during the peak season to see if it can break through the upper space, and the previous high resistance remains strong [7]. 4. Section Summaries 4.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Aluminum prices declined, and the market activity recovered. The cast aluminum alloy is expected to strengthen, and the alumina price is weak. The electrolytic aluminum inventory is accumulating, and the future trend depends on the peak - season consumption [7]. 4.2 Industry News - On September 4, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued the "Stable Growth Action Plan for the Electronic Information Manufacturing Industry from 2025 - 2026", aiming to promote high - quality development in the photovoltaic and other fields, guide the orderly layout of industries, and strengthen product quality management [8]. - The Indian federal environment ministry has postponed the approval of Vedanta's Sijimali bauxite project in Odisha. The project, with an expected reserve of 311 million tons, faces issues such as community consent, ecological risks, and land - use problems. It will remain on hold until these issues are resolved [10]. - The mining right of Sanmenxia Jinjiang Mining Co., Ltd.'s Shaanzhou Dataoyuan bauxite mine has been changed, with a validity period from June 4, 2025, to April 3, 2030. The designed production scale is 500,000 tons/year [10].