建信期货镍日报-20250905

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On September 4, the Shanghai nickel price continued to decline, with the main contract closing down 0.53% to 120,850 yuan/ton. The average premium of Jinchuan nickel dropped by 50 to 2,050, and the premium/discount of domestic electrowon nickel was reported at -200 - 200. The average price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron rose by 1 to 945 yuan/nickel point, and the average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate remained flat at 27,870 yuan/ton [8]. - Affected by events such as Indonesia's adjustment of the RKAB approval cycle and demonstrations, the decline of nickel ore is limited, and support is emerging. NPI remains strong under cost support and demand recovery expectations, but the improvement space for stainless - steel terminals is limited, so the subsequent upward space is restricted. The price of nickel sulfate remains strong, but the demand for new - energy ternary batteries is mediocre, and the expected increase is limited [8]. - Overall, the primary nickel market remains in an oversupply situation. The nickel price continues to face pressure on the upside, and it is also difficult to break downward due to cost support. Short - selling at low levels has a relatively low cost - effectiveness. It is recommended to adopt a trading - range strategy, with the main operating range of the index referring to 119,000 - 125,000 yuan [8]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The nickel price on September 4 showed a downward trend, along with changes in the premiums and discounts of different nickel products and the prices of related nickel - containing products. The report analyzes the supply and demand situation of different nickel - related products and gives an overall judgment on the nickel market, suggesting a trading - range strategy [8]. 2. Industry News - Tata Steel Mining's MD Pankaj K. Satija said India can relieve the supply shortage of key minerals like nickel through three paths: enhancing local mining and processing, recovering by - products from existing mining, and promoting "urban mining". India launched the National Critical Minerals Mission (NCMM) in January this year, with a total budget of 163 billion rupees and plans to attract 180 billion rupees of state - owned enterprise investment to reduce dependence on Chinese supply [9]. - Indonesia's forest law - enforcement working group will conduct a centralized crackdown on illegal nickel mines. The action aims to regain state control of forests, and companies need to return illegal profits. Some cases may enter criminal investigations, and the seized mines will be temporarily managed by the state - owned enterprise department [10]. - FPX Nickel announced its participation in two important sustainable development initiatives in 2025, joining the Mining Association of Canada (MAC) and the United Nations Global Compact, which reflects its commitment to environmental protection, transparency, and responsibility [10].