大国综合实力展现，人民币或震荡升值

Market Overview - In August 2025, the RMB exchange rate fluctuated between 7.1030 and 7.2106, indicating a trend of appreciation[2] - The onshore RMB rate ranged from 7.1330 to 7.2106, while the offshore RMB rate fluctuated between 7.1209 and 7.1929[2] Influencing Factors - The market's expectation for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September rose to 90.5% by September 3, up from 62.6% on July 26[2] - Key factors driving this expectation include a lower-than-expected increase in non-farm payrolls (73,000 vs. 110,000 expected) and President Trump's pressure on the Federal Reserve[3] - China's total electricity consumption in July reached 1,022.6 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 8.6%, reflecting economic resilience[3] Future Outlook - The RMB is expected to maintain a fluctuating appreciation trend in September 2025, with a projected range of 7.00 to 7.25[5] - China's enhanced international standing, showcased by events like the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit and the 80th anniversary military parade, is expected to increase the attractiveness of Chinese assets[7] - Despite the bullish sentiment, rising inflation and relatively low unemployment in the U.S. do not support a rate cut, which may temper expectations[7]