Group 1: Report Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Views - This week, copper prices broke through and moved upward. The market order trading remained resilient, and the copper rod operating rate showed no obvious distinction between peak and off - peak seasons. The supply was continuously disturbed, and there was potential squeeze - out risk. Attention should be paid to the changes in the monthly and internal - external structure from September to October [1]. - For aluminum, supply increased slightly. In August, the demand was in the seasonal off - peak, with improvement in the second half of the month. In September, inventory was expected to decline. In the short term, the downstream was in the off - peak season, and attention should be paid to the long - term monthly and internal - external reverse hedging under the low - inventory pattern [1]. - Zinc prices fluctuated narrowly this week. Supply increased, and demand was seasonally weak. Domestically, social inventory rose, and overseas LME inventory declined rapidly. In the short term, it was expected to rebound, and in the long term, a short - position allocation was recommended [5]. - Nickel prices declined slightly. Supply was at a high level, demand was weak, and domestic inventory decreased slightly while overseas inventory remained stable. Attention should be paid to the development of the riots in Indonesia [6][7]. - Stainless steel prices were relatively stable. Supply decreased due to partial passive production cuts by steel mills, demand was mainly for rigid needs, and the overall fundamentals remained weak. Attention should be paid to the development of the riots in Indonesia [10]. - Lead prices fluctuated. Supply was expected to be tight, and demand was in the peak season but with weak performance. It was expected that lead prices would remain in a low - level shock next week [12]. - Tin prices fluctuated upward. Supply was affected by domestic and overseas factors, and demand had different performances at home and abroad. In the short term, it was recommended to wait and see, and in the long term, buy at low prices near the cost line [15]. - Industrial silicon prices changed. The resumption of production in Xinjiang was stable with an expected acceleration. The current supply - demand balance was in a state of slight inventory decline, and in the long term, it was expected to fluctuate at the cycle bottom [18]. - Lithium carbonate prices declined. The core contradiction was the imbalance between long - term over - capacity and short - term supply disturbances. With the arrival of the downstream peak season, the price had strong downward support [20]. Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - This week, copper prices broke through and moved upward. The market order trading was resilient, and the copper rod operating rate had no obvious peak - off - peak distinction. The rumor of tax - refund cancellation in some areas affected the scrap copper market, and the supply was disturbed. The electrolytic copper production in September decreased unexpectedly, and there was potential squeeze - out risk [1]. Aluminum - Supply increased slightly. In August, demand was in the seasonal off - peak, with improvement in the second half of the month. In September, inventory was expected to decline. In the short term, the downstream was in the off - peak season, and attention should be paid to the long - term monthly and internal - external reverse hedging under the low - inventory pattern [1]. Zinc - Zinc prices fluctuated narrowly. Domestic TC had difficulty rising, and import TC increased. In August, the smelting output increased, and overseas mine output in the second quarter exceeded expectations. Demand was seasonally weak, and domestic social inventory rose while overseas LME inventory declined rapidly. In the short term, it was expected to rebound, and in the long term, a short - position allocation was recommended [5]. Nickel - Nickel prices declined slightly. Supply was at a high level, demand was weak, and domestic inventory decreased slightly while overseas inventory remained stable. Attention should be paid to the development of the riots in Indonesia [6][7]. Stainless Steel - Stainless steel prices were relatively stable. Supply decreased due to partial passive production cuts by steel mills, demand was mainly for rigid needs, and the overall fundamentals remained weak. Attention should be paid to the development of the riots in Indonesia [10]. Lead - Lead prices fluctuated. Supply was expected to be tight due to various factors such as low scrap battery supply and high inventory of battery products. Demand was in the peak season but with weak performance. It was expected that lead prices would remain in a low - level shock next week [12]. Tin - Tin prices fluctuated upward. Supply was affected by domestic and overseas factors, such as the low processing fee of domestic mines and the potential resumption of production in overseas areas. Demand had different performances at home and abroad, with weak domestic demand and strong overseas demand. In the short term, it was recommended to wait and see, and in the long term, buy at low prices near the cost line [15]. Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon prices changed. The resumption of production in Xinjiang was stable with an expected acceleration. The current supply - demand balance was in a state of slight inventory decline, and in the long term, it was expected to fluctuate at the cycle bottom [18]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices declined. The core contradiction was the imbalance between long - term over - capacity and short - term supply disturbances. With the arrival of the downstream peak season, the price had strong downward support [20].
6394298有色早报-20250905
Yong An Qi Huo·2025-09-05 05:12