大越期货甲醇早报-20250905

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The macro - level has no positive news, and the supply - demand contradiction is becoming prominent. It is expected that the domestic methanol price may face downward pressure this week. The inland methanol price is expected to decline in the short - term due to increased supply and reduced demand, while the port is expected to continue to accumulate inventory, but the subsequent reverse flow of port goods to the inland may increase. Overall, in the short - term, the driving force is still downward, and it is expected that the methanol price will fluctuate this week, with MA2601 oscillating between 2340 - 2410 [5]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Daily Prompt - For MA2601, the macro - level is weak, and the supply - demand contradiction is prominent. The inland supply has increased significantly, while demand has decreased. The port is expected to accumulate inventory, but there are factors such as potential reverse flow to the inland and rising Indian prices. The basis shows that the spot is at a discount to the futures. As of August 28, 2025, the port inventory has increased significantly, the 20 - day line is downward, and the price is below the moving average. The main position is net long, but the long position has decreased. It is expected that the methanol price will oscillate this week, with MA2601 oscillating between 2340 - 2410 [5]. 2. Multi - and Short - term Concerns - Likely to be Bullish: Some domestic devices such as Yulin Kaiyue and Xinjiang Xinya have stopped production; Iranian methanol production has decreased, and port inventory is at a low level; a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Jingmen has started production, and a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong is planned to be put into production this month; CTO plants in the northwest are purchasing methanol [6]. - Likely to be Bearish: Some previously shut - down domestic devices such as Inner Mongolia Donghua have resumed production; there is expected to be a concentrated arrival of ships at the port in the second half of the month; the formaldehyde industry has entered the traditional off - season, and the MTBE operating rate has declined significantly; coal - based methanol has a certain profit margin and is actively selling; some factories in the production area have accumulated inventory due to poor sales [7]. 3. Fundamental Data - Spot and Futures Prices: The spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 2265 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract is - 113, indicating that the spot is at a discount to the futures. The futures closing price is 2378 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan from the previous value. The import cost is 2298 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan from the previous value [5][8]. - Price Changes: The weekly change in the domestic methanol spot price in Jiangsu is 0.90%, in Shandong is 0.00%, in Hebei is - 1.32%, in Inner Mongolia is 0.37%, and in Fujian is 0.00%. The weekly change in the futures price is 0.72%, and the weekly change in the basis is 3 [9][11]. - Operating Rates: The weighted average operating rate across the country is 74.90%, down 3.81% from the previous week. The operating rates in East China, Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest are 80.65%, 68.71%, 44.06%, and 81.54% respectively, with varying degrees of decline compared to the previous week [8]. - Inventory: As of August 28, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in the East and South China ports is 106.60 tons, a significant increase of 13.18 tons from the previous period. The total available and tradable methanol in the coastal areas has increased by 8.44 tons to 69.13 tons [5]. - Traditional Downstream Product Prices: The prices of traditional downstream products such as formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and acetic acid have remained unchanged this week, with a weekly change of 0.00% [31]. - Production Profits and Loads of Downstream Products: The production profits of formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, acetic acid, and MTO have changed to different degrees, and their loads have also changed. For example, the formaldehyde production profit has increased by 13 yuan/ton, and the load has increased by 0.90% [35][38][42][47]. - Methanol Warehouse Receipts and Effective Forecasts: The warehouse receipts have increased by 2.98% to 10036, and the effective forecasts have increased by 176.50% to 5483 [54]. 4. Maintenance Status - Domestic Methanol Plants: Many domestic methanol plants are under maintenance or have reduced production, including those in the Northwest, East, Southwest, and Northeast regions. For example, Shaanxi Black Cat, Qinghai Zhonghao, and other plants are under maintenance [57]. - Overseas Methanol Plants: Some overseas methanol plants in Iran, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and other countries have different operating conditions, such as some plants in Iran are in the process of restarting, and some plants in the US have normal operations [58]. - Olefin Plants: Some domestic olefin plants are under maintenance or have normal operations. For example, Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy's methanol and olefin plants are under synchronous maintenance, while some plants in Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia, and other regions are operating stably [59].