Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - OPEC+ has not decided whether to continue increasing production, but previous news has damaged market confidence. Coupled with the unexpected increase in EIA crude oil inventories, oil prices have been further hit. Crude oil is expected to trade in the range of 480 - 490 in the short term, and long - term investors are advised to hold long positions [3] Summary by Catalog 1. Daily Hints - Fundamentals: OPEC+ is considering current market conditions and forecasts, and eight member countries may further increase oil production. OPEC's oil production in August may rise due to increased output from the UAE and Saudi Arabia [3] - Basis: On September 4, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $69.70 per barrel, and the spot price of Qatar Marine crude oil was $69.16 per barrel. The basis was 34.21 yuan/barrel, with the spot price higher than the futures price [3] - Inventory: From August 29, the API crude oil inventory in the US increased by 622,000 barrels, and the EIA inventory increased by 2.415 million barrels, both exceeding expectations. Cushing's inventory increased by 1.59 million barrels. As of September 4, the Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged at 5.721 million barrels [3] - Market: The 20 - day moving average was flat, and the price was below the moving average [3] - Main Position: As of August 26, the main long positions in WTI crude oil decreased, while those in Brent crude oil increased [3] - Futures and Spot Quotes: The settlement prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, SC crude oil, and Oman crude oil all declined. The spot prices of various types of crude oil also decreased [7][9] 2. Recent News - Political News: Trump called on European countries to stop buying Russian oil. The US will gradually cancel some security aid to European countries near the Russian border [5] - Corporate News: ConocoPhillips will lay off up to a quarter of its employees (about 3,250). Chevron laid off up to 20% of its employees earlier this year [5] - Inventory News: As of August 29, US commercial crude oil inventories increased by 2.4 million barrels, strategic petroleum reserves increased by 500,000 barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 3.8 million barrels, and distillate inventories increased by 1.7 million barrels. Domestic crude oil production decreased by 16,000 barrels per day, and refinery crude processing volume decreased by 11,000 barrels per day [5] 3. Long - Short Concerns - Bullish Factors: The US imposes secondary sanctions on Russian energy exports, and the Sino - US tariff exemption period is extended again [6] - Bearish Factors: There is hope for a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and the US has tense trade relations with other economies [6] - Market Drivers: In the short term, geopolitical conflicts have decreased, and the risk of trade tariffs has increased. In the medium and long term, supply will increase after the peak season ends [6] 4. Fundamental Data - API Inventory Trend: From June 20 to August 29, API inventories showed fluctuations, with an increase of 622,000 barrels on August 29 [10] - EIA Inventory Trend: From June 27 to August 29, EIA inventories also fluctuated, with an increase of 2.415 million barrels on August 29 [14] - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: The supply - demand gap and production data of OPEC+ from 2023 to 2026 - Q4 are presented [20] 5. Position Data - WTI Crude Oil Fund Net Long Position: From June 24 to August 26, the net long position of WTI crude oil funds showed a downward trend overall, with a decrease of 10,737 on August 26 [17] - Brent Crude Oil Fund Net Long Position: From June 24 to August 26, the net long position of Brent crude oil funds also fluctuated, with a decrease of 10,737 on August 26 [19]
大越期货原油早报-20250905
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-09-05 05:48