2025年9月资产配置报告：颠簸初现，行稳致远

Macro Strategy Overview - The report indicates that the U.S. labor market continues to weaken, with marginal economic deterioration observed. However, high-frequency indicators show that the employment market has not fully deteriorated, suggesting a structural weakness in the labor market due to tightened immigration policies [6][27]. - U.S. inflation remains controllable, with July CPI rising by 2.7%, slightly below expectations, indicating a trend of easing inflation. The Federal Reserve is likely to initiate interest rate cuts in September, with expectations of two cuts by the end of the year [8][32]. Domestic Economic Environment - The report highlights that the domestic policy is currently in an observation phase, focusing on implementing existing policies and addressing weak areas. The emphasis is shifting from short-term stimulus to long-term strategic goals such as technological innovation and sustainable economic development [8][40]. - Economic recovery has slowed down, with July data showing a decline in consumption growth to 3.7% and a further drop in investment growth. The industrial production index also showed a slight decline, indicating potential pressures on future production [42][57]. A-share Market Strategy - The A-share market is expected to continue its upward trend, driven by a return of core asset profitability. The report suggests a relatively optimistic outlook for A-shares, with a focus on structural adjustments and the impact of external factors such as reduced tariff disturbances [9][10]. - The report emphasizes a multi-theme rotation strategy, with a strong performance expected in technology and growth sectors. Investors are advised to maintain a balanced portfolio while focusing on high-elasticity sectors like technology and new energy [9][10]. Industry Performance - In August, the A-share market saw a significant increase, with the ChiNext Index rising by 24.13%, indicating strong market sentiment and a positive feedback loop forming as retail savings shift towards the stock market [13][14]. - The report notes that all major sectors experienced gains in August, particularly in technology, electronics, and materials, driven by favorable policies and market conditions [16][15]. Asset Allocation Insights - The report suggests a balanced approach to asset allocation, with a focus on technology growth sectors for higher elasticity. It also highlights the importance of diversifying across global assets, including Japanese and European stocks, as well as commodities like gold [10][9].