沪铜市场周报：供给小降需求暂弱，沪铜或将震荡运行-20250905

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract of Shanghai copper showed a slightly stronger weekly trend, with a weekly increase of +0.92% and an amplitude of 1.56%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 80,140 yuan/ton [6]. - Internationally, the US ISM Manufacturing Index in August rose slightly from 48 in July to 48.7, below the market - expected 49 and remaining below the boom - bust line for six consecutive months. Domestically, in August, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points month - on - month; the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.3%, up 0.2 percentage points month - on - month; and the composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points month - on - month [6]. - Fundamentally, the TC fee for copper ore is running in a low range, and the raw material price is firm, providing cost support for copper prices. In terms of supply, domestic smelter production and operating rates have declined due to maintenance, and the supply shortage of raw materials such as copper concentrate and scrap copper has also limited smelter capacity to some extent, so domestic refined copper production may decrease. In terms of demand, in the short term, the relatively strong copper price due to the expected Fed rate cut has suppressed the downstream pick - up sentiment, and the trading sentiment in the spot market has cooled. In the long term, the traditional consumption peak season is still expected to boost demand, and with the increase in new orders and a slight correction in copper prices, the downstream purchasing sentiment may gradually recover. In terms of inventory, social inventory has accumulated due to a slight slowdown in demand. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a stage of slightly converging supply and temporarily weak demand, with a positive industrial outlook [6]. - The recommended strategy is to conduct light - position oscillating trading, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Summary - Market Performance: The main contract of Shanghai copper had a slightly stronger weekly trend, with a closing price of 80,140 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of +0.92%, and an amplitude of 1.56% [6]. - International and Domestic Economic Indicators: Internationally, the US ISM Manufacturing Index in August was 48.7, below expectations. Domestically, in August, the manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing business activity index, and composite PMI output index all increased month - on - month [6]. - Fundamentals: Cost support from raw materials, supply may decrease due to smelter issues, short - term demand is weak but long - term demand is expected to improve, and inventory has accumulated [6]. - Strategy: Light - position oscillating trading [7] 3.2 Spot - Futures Market Situation - Contract Indicators: As of September 5, 2025, the basis of the main contract of Shanghai copper was - 90 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton from last week; the contract price was 80,140 yuan/ton, up 730 yuan/ton from last week; the position was 187,152 lots, up 13,326 lots from last week; the inter - monthly spread was 50 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from last week [12][15]. - Spot Price: The average spot price of 1 electrolytic copper was 80,050 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan/ton week - on - week [15]. - Premium and Position: The average CIF premium of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 59 US dollars/ton, unchanged from last week; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai copper was a net short of - 850 lots, an increase of 11,386 lots from last week [24]. - Option Indicators: The short - term implied volatility of the at - the - money option contract of Shanghai copper fell below the 50th percentile of historical volatility; the put - call ratio of option positions was 0.72, a decrease of 0.0766 from last week [29]. 3.3 Industrial Situation 3.3.1 Upstream - Raw Material Prices: The copper concentrate price in the main domestic mining area (Jiangxi) was 70,440 yuan/ton, up 780 yuan/ton from last week; the southern copper scrap processing fee was 700 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [30]. - Imports: In July 2025, the import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 2.5601 million tons, an increase of 210,500 tons from June, a growth rate of 8.96%, and a year - on - year growth rate of 18.41%. The refined - scrap copper price difference (tax - included) was 1,529.89 yuan/ton, up 8.06 yuan/ton from last week [36]. - Global Production and Inventory: In June 2025, the global monthly production of copper concentrates was 1,916 thousand tons, a decrease of 81 thousand tons from May, a decline of 4.06%; the global capacity utilization rate was 79%, a decrease of 0.9% from May. The inventory of copper concentrates in seven domestic ports was 550,000 tons, an increase of 77,000 tons month - on - month [41]. 3.3.2 Supply Side - Refined Copper Production: In July 2025, the domestic monthly production of refined copper was 1.27 million tons, a decrease of 32,000 tons from June, a decline of 2.46%, and a year - on - year increase of 15.14%. In June 2025, the global monthly production of refined copper (primary + recycled) was 2,431 thousand tons, an increase of 45 thousand tons from May, an increase of 1.89%; the capacity utilization rate was 83.5%, an increase of 3.7% from May [46]. - Imports: In July 2025, the import volume of refined copper was 335,969.236 tons, a decrease of 1,073.33 tons from June, a decline of 0.32%, and a year - on - year increase of 12.05%. The import profit and loss was 655.7 yuan/ton, an increase of 650.4 yuan/ton from last week [51][52]. - Inventory: The LME total inventory decreased by 525 tons from last week, the COMEX total inventory increased by 24,901 tons from last week, and the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 2,485 tons from last week. The total social inventory was 148,100 tons, an increase of 7,700 tons from last week [55]. 3.3.3 Downstream and Applications - Copper Products: In July 2025, the monthly production of copper products was 2.1694 million tons, a decrease of 45,100 tons from June, a decline of 2.04%; the import volume was 480,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from June, an increase of 4.35%, and a year - on - year increase of 9.09% [59]. - Power Grid and Appliance: As of July 2025, the cumulative investment in power and grid construction increased by 3.4% and 12.5% year - on - year respectively. The monthly production of washing machines, air conditioners, refrigerators, freezers, and color TVs increased by 2.4%, 1.5%, 5%, 2.9%, and - 6.5% year - on - year respectively [65]. - Real Estate and Integrated Circuits: As of July 2025, the cumulative real estate development investment was 535.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 12% and a month - on - month increase of 14.84%. The cumulative production of integrated circuits was 294.6 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 10.4% and a month - on - month increase of 23.02% [72]. 3.4 Overall Situation - According to ICSG statistics, as of June 2025, the global refined copper supply was in excess, with a monthly surplus of 36 thousand tons. According to WBMS statistics, the cumulative global supply - demand balance as of June 2025 was a surplus of 46,500 tons [77]