焦炭市场周报：阅兵影响铁水下降，焦钢博弈价格震荡-20250905

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The macro - sentiment has subsided with frequent shifts between long and short positions. In the short - term, the futures price is mainly determined by the industry, with a game between coke producers and steelmakers. The futures price is expected to show a volatile trend. It is recommended to treat the main coke contract as a volatile operation [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - Macro Aspect: China's electricity accounts for 30% of terminal energy consumption, expected to rise above 40% by 2035. Baosteel identifies long products and thick plates as new strategic core products. The personal mortgage loan balance of six major state - owned banks is about 25 trillion yuan, shrinking by 107.8 billion yuan from the beginning of the year and declining for three consecutive years [8]. - Overseas Aspect: The US suspends trade threats against China and considers sanctions on Russia. Trump signs a US - Japan trade executive order, imposing up to 15% tariffs on most Japanese products. Many Asian and Middle - Eastern investment institutions avoid US assets due to concerns about Trump's policies [8]. - Supply - Demand Aspect: The current iron - water output is 228,840 tons, a decrease of 11,290 tons. Affected by steel - mill production control during the military parade, iron - water output drops significantly. The coal - mine inventory has no pressure, and the total coking - coal inventory increases. The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is 64 yuan/ton [8]. - Technical Aspect: The weekly K - line of the main coke contract is below the 60 - day moving average, indicating a bearish weekly trend [8]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures Market: As of September 5, the contract position increased by 3,487 lots, and the coke monthly spread increased by 18.5 points. The registered warehouse receipts increased by 300 lots, and the rebar - coke ratio increased by 0.03 points [12][18]. - Spot Market: As of September 4, 2025, the coke flat - price at Rizhao Port remained unchanged at 1,530 yuan/ton, and the coking - coal ex - factory price at the Ganqimaodu Port in Mongolia remained unchanged at 1,150 yuan/ton. As of September 5, the coke basis was - 51.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 91 points [26]. - Production Data: In July, the raw - coal output of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 380 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%. From January to July, it was 2.78 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.8%. In July 2025, China's coking - coal output was 4.08938 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 25,000 tons [28]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Situation - Coking Plant: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is 64 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is 72.61%, a decrease of 0.09%. The daily coke output is 51,210 tons, a decrease of 70 tons. Coke inventory is 40,710 tons, an increase of 900 tons. The total coking - coal inventory is 780,950 tons, a decrease of 38,920 tons. The available coking - coal days are 11.5 days, a decrease of 0.55 days [32]. - Downstream: The daily iron - water output of 247 steel mills is 228,840 tons, a decrease of 11,290 tons from last week and an increase of 62,300 tons from last year. As of August 29, 2025, the total coke inventory is 8.5415 million tons, a decrease of 13,100 tons from the previous period and a year - on - year increase of 12.88% [36]. - Inventory Structure: The port coke inventory decreased by 79,000 tons, and the steel - mill coke inventory increased by 136,400 tons. The daily coke output of 247 steel mills is 45,720 tons, a decrease of 370 tons. The capacity utilization rate is 84.31%, a decrease of 0.68%. The available coke days are 11.71 days, an increase of 0.93 days [40]. - Fundamental Data: In July, China exported 890,000 tons of coke and semi - coke, a year - on - year increase of 15.58%. From January to July, the cumulative export was 4.4 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21.9%. In July, China exported 9.836 million tons of steel, a month - on - month increase of 1.6%. From January to July, the cumulative export was 67.983 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.4% [44]. - Real Estate Data: In July 2025, the second - hand housing price index of 70 large and medium - sized cities decreased by 0.50% month - on - month. As of the week ending August 31, the commercial housing transaction area of 30 large and medium - sized cities was 1.8485 million square meters, a month - on - month increase of 16.64% and a year - on - year increase of 6.42% [47]. - City - Level Real Estate: As of the week ending August 31, the commercial housing transaction area of first - tier cities was 531,500 square meters, a month - on - month increase of 31.96% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.14%. The transaction area of second - tier cities was 965,100 square meters, a month - on - month increase of 6.79% and a year - on - year increase of 17.68% [53].