Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of alumina may be in a stage of slight supply growth and stable demand. For electrolytic aluminum, the fundamentals may be in a stage of slight supply growth and gradually rising demand, with positive consumption expectations and a possible inventory inflection point. Cast aluminum alloy fundamentals may be in a stage of slightly converging supply and gradually warming demand [4]. - It is recommended to conduct light - position short - term long trading on dips for the main contract of Shanghai aluminum, and light - position range - bound trading for the main contract of alumina, while paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [4]. - Given that the aluminum price will be supported in the future, a double - buying strategy can be considered to bet on increased volatility [75]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - to - Week Summary - Market Review: Shanghai aluminum showed a volatile trend, with a weekly change of - 0.22%, closing at 20,695 yuan/ton. Alumina trended weakly, with a weekly change of - 0.99%, closing at 3,006 yuan/ton. Cast aluminum's main contract trended weakly, with a weekly change of - 0.33%, closing at 20,280 yuan/ton [4][6]. - Market Outlook: - Alumina: The raw material supply is sufficient in the short term, and the supply is expected to increase slightly while demand remains stable [4]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: The smelting profit is good, and the supply is expected to increase slightly while demand gradually recovers, with positive consumption expectations and a possible inventory inflection point [4]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: The supply may slightly converge due to tight raw materials and high costs, and demand is gradually warming up [6]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - Futures Prices: - As of September 5, 2025, Shanghai aluminum closed at 20,715 yuan/ton, down 0.24% from August 29; LME aluminum closed at 2,590 US dollars/ton on September 4, 2025, down 0.65% from August 29. The Shanghai - LME ratio was 7.96, up 0.12 from August 29 [9][10]. - As of September 5, 2025, the alumina futures price was 2,948 yuan/ton, down 1.93% from August 29; the cast aluminum alloy main contract closed at 20,280 yuan/ton, down 0.34% from August 29 [13]. - Open Interest: As of September 5, 2025, the Shanghai aluminum open interest was 534,489 lots, down 7.36% from August 29; the net position of the top 20 was 4,602 lots, down 1,113 lots from August 29 [16]. - Futures Spreads: As of September 5, 2025, the aluminum - zinc futures spread was 1,460 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton from August 29; the copper - aluminum futures spread was 59,445 yuan/ton, up 775 yuan/ton from August 29 [21]. - Spot Prices: - As of September 5, 2025, the average alumina price in Henan was 3,120 yuan/ton, down 2.04% from August 29; in Shanxi, it was 3,175 yuan/ton, down 2.52% from August 29; in Guiyang, it was 3,175 yuan/ton, down 2.52% from August 29. The national average price of cast aluminum alloy (ADC12) was 20,750 yuan/ton, unchanged from August 29 [23][24]. - As of September 5, 2025, the A00 aluminum ingot spot price was 20,680 yuan/ton, down 0.19% from August 29; the spot was at par, up 30 yuan/ton from last week [30]. 3. Industry Conditions - Inventory: - As of September 4, 2025, the LME electrolytic aluminum inventory was 479,600 tons, down 0.32% from August 28; the SHFE electrolytic aluminum inventory was 125,596 tons on August 29, up 0.8% from last week; the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 572,000 tons on September 4, up 0.88% from August 28 [34][35]. - As of September 5, 2025, the SHFE electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipts were 59,961 tons, up 2.27% from August 29; the LME electrolytic aluminum registered warehouse receipts were 468,750 tons on September 4, unchanged from August 28 [35]. - Raw Materials: - As of the latest data, the domestic nine - port bauxite inventory was 27.63 million tons, down 250,000 tons from the previous month. In July 2025, the bauxite imports were 20.063 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.75% and a year - on - year increase of 34.22%. From January to July, the bauxite imports were 123.2607 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 33.65% [38]. - As of this week's latest data, the price of crushed raw aluminum scrap in Shandong was 15,800 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from last week. In July 2025, the imports of aluminum scrap and fragments were 160,494.61 tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.68%; the exports were 79.39 tons, a year - on - year increase of 50.91% [44]. - Production and Trade: - In July 2025, the alumina output was 7.5649 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%; from January to July, the cumulative output was 52.6721 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.5%. In July 2025, the alumina imports were 125,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 35.29% and a year - on - year increase of 78.23%; the exports were 230,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 53.33%. From January to July, the cumulative alumina imports were 394,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 68.61% [46][47]. - In July 2025, the electrolytic aluminum imports were 248,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 91.19%; from January to July, the cumulative imports were 1.4975 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11%. In July 2025, the electrolytic aluminum exports were 41,000 tons; from January to July, the cumulative exports were 126,900 tons [50]. - In July 2025, the electrolytic aluminum output was 378,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%; from January to July, the cumulative output was 2.638 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.8%. In August 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum in - production capacity was 4.4379 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.34% and a year - on - year increase of 1.99%; the total capacity was 4.5232 million tons, unchanged from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 0.52%; the operating rate was 98.11%, up 0.33% from last month and down 1.41% from the same period last year [54]. - In July 2025, the aluminum product output was 5.4837 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.6%; from January to July, the cumulative output was 38.4699 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.8%. In July 2025, the aluminum product imports were 360,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 38.2%; the exports were 540,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.6%. From January to July, the aluminum product imports were 2.33 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.5%; the exports were 3.46 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.9% [58]. - In July 2025, the cast aluminum alloy monthly built - in capacity was 1.26 million tons, unchanged from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 19.25%. The cast aluminum alloy output was 623,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.69 and a year - on - year increase of 12.41% [61]. - In July 2025, the aluminum alloy output was 1.536 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.7%; from January to July, the cumulative output was 10.628 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.8%. In July 2025, the aluminum alloy imports were 69,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 28.39%; the exports were 24,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 38.3%. From January to July, the aluminum alloy imports were 611,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.83%; the exports were 145,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.77% [64]. - Downstream Markets: - In July 2025, the real estate development climate index was 93.34, down 0.25 from last month and up 1.23 from the same period last year. From January to July 2024, the new housing construction area was 352.06 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 19.5%; the housing completion area was 250.34 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 21.19% [67]. - From January to July 2024, the infrastructure investment increased by 7.29% year - on - year. In July 2025, the Chinese automobile sales volume was 2,593,410 units, a year - on - year increase of 14.66%; the automobile production was 2,591,084 units, a year - on - year increase of 13.33% [70]. 4. Option Market Analysis - Given that the aluminum price will be supported in the future, a double - buying strategy can be considered to bet on increased volatility [75].
铝类市场周报：供给小增需求渐暖，铝类或将有所支撑-20250905
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-09-05 08:44