软商品日报-20250905

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Date: September 5, 2025 [1] - Author: Xu Liang (Z0002220), Reviewed by Tang Yun (Z0002422) [2] Group 2: Sugar Market Core View - International raw sugar prices are suppressed by the expected increase in production in the Northern Hemisphere's new season, with a divergence in the estimated output in the central - southern region of Brazil between 39 million and 40.5 million tons, and uncertainty in the adjustment of the sugar - making ratio in the later stage of crushing. In China, Yunnan's industrial inventory at the end of August was 336,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 26.6%, and the spot price was lowered by 10 - 20 yuan. The large year - on - year increase in imported sugar in July exacerbated the supply pressure of processed sugar. The market focuses on the game between the low inventory of domestic sugar and the potential overstock of processed sugar during the transition period between the old and new crushing seasons, as well as the impact of Northern Hemisphere weather on the start of crushing [3]. Price and Spread - On September 5, 2025, SR01 closed at 5523 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.18% and a weekly decline of 1.45%. Other contracts also showed different degrees of decline [4]. - The basis of Nanning - SR01 on September 4, 2025, was 347 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 9 yuan and a weekly increase of 39 yuan. The basis of Kunming - SR01 was 312 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 24 yuan and a weekly increase of 84 yuan [10]. Import Price - On September 5, 2025, the in - quota price of Brazilian imported sugar was 4453 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 25 yuan and a weekly decline of 86 yuan. The out - of - quota price was 5656 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 33 yuan and a weekly decline of 113 yuan [13]. Group 3: Cotton Market Core View - Recently, the temperature in Xinjiang has been mild with little rainfall. The temperature has dropped this week. Xinjiang's new cotton has entered the concentrated boll - opening stage, and the growth progress is ahead of schedule. It is expected that the new cotton will be listed successively in late September. Rainfall may increase in mid - to - late September, especially in some southern Xinjiang regions, which may affect cotton quality and harvesting progress. Downstream, with the arrival of the "Golden September and Silver October", the inventory of finished products has been further reduced, but the profit has not been significantly repaired, and the overall confidence is still insufficient with a lack of orders [15]. Price and Spread - On September 5, 2025, cotton 01 closed at 14000 yuan/ton, with a decline of 10 yuan and a decline rate of 0.07%. Cotton 05 closed at 13940 yuan/ton, with a decline of 10 yuan and a decline rate of 0.07% [16]. - The cotton basis was 1441 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 34 yuan. The spread between cotton 01 - 05 was 60 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 20 yuan [17]. Group 4: Red Date Market Core View - On the basis of last year's bumper harvest, the output of grey dates in the new year may decline significantly year - on - year, but the decline may be smaller compared to normal years. There may still be speculation in the market before the dates are harvested. Pay attention to the weather changes in the production areas. Although the Mid - Autumn Festival peak season is approaching, the overall downstream trading volume is average. If the decline in production does not further expand, the red date price will still face downward pressure under the supply of high inventory of old dates [21]. Group 5: Apple Market Core View - Affected by seasonal fruits, the sales speed of apples is limited. In Shandong, the number of packaged apples is limited due to the busy farming season. In Shaanxi, the supply is concentrated in northern Shaanxi, and the secondary production areas are basically cleared. For the new - season apples, the harvest of paper - bag Gala is almost over, and early Fuji apples are gradually on the market, but the fruit size is still small. In the short term, the apple market still has some pressure to release [25]. Price and Spread - On September 5, 2025, AP01 closed at 8296 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.1% and a weekly decline of 0.02%. Other contracts also showed different degrees of price changes [26]. - The spread between AP01 - 05 was 51 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 2% and a weekly decline of 32%. The main contract basis was 272 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 8.72% and a weekly increase of 13.33% [26].