贵金属有色金属产业日报-20250905

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Precious Metals: Affected by weak US employment data, the ADP employment in August only increased by 54,000, strengthening the expectation of the Fed to cut interest rates in September. Multiple factors jointly support the strong operation of gold prices [3]. - Copper: The market focus is on the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, personnel adjustment, independence issues, and bond - market risks. Copper prices may remain strong in the short term due to relatively tight supply and the stimulus of US economic pressure on the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation [17]. - Aluminum: In the short term, aluminum fluctuates with an upward bias, but there is pressure above. To break through the 21,000 pressure level, the peak - season expectations need to be fulfilled, demand should improve significantly, and inventory should start to decline. Alumina has insufficient upward drive in the short term, and its price is approaching the 2,880 yuan cost line. Cast aluminum alloy is more resilient due to cost support [37][38][39]. - Zinc: In the short term, zinc shows a pattern of being strong overseas and weak domestically. Observe macro and consumption factors, and it will mainly fluctuate [68]. - Nickel: Currently, the nickel ore price has a slight decline, other nickel products are basically stable, and the MHP benchmark price has an upward trend. Stainless - steel inventory has decreased for several weeks, and demand sentiment has improved in the peak season. Sulfuric - nickel prices are stable. Pay continuous attention to the impact of interest - rate cut expectations and the US dollar trend [83]. - Tin: In the short term, tin prices have an upward driving force due to tight supply, despite certain demand pressure [98]. - Lithium Carbonate: The current market is in an oscillating adjustment stage. If the conversion of orders to actual transactions is less than expected, the market may remain weakly oscillating; if the receiving demand is gradually released, prices may be supported [110]. - Silicon Industry Chain: In the short term, industrial silicon prices are expected to be flat in September. In the medium - to - long term, they have an upward expectation. Polysilicon is in a "wide - range oscillation" state, and short - term price fluctuations due to news stimuli should be vigilant [119]. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - Price Influencing Factors: Weak US employment data, the signing of the US - Japan trade agreement, investigations into the Fed's independence, and the expansion of the US trade deficit support the strong operation of gold prices [3]. - Market Data: Various data on SHFE and COMEX gold and silver prices, inventory, and long - term fund positions are presented [4][12][16]. Copper - Price Movement: Copper prices rose due to multiple factors but fell on Wednesday. In the short term, they may remain strong due to supply and demand factors [17]. - Market Data: Include copper futures and spot prices, import and export data, inventory data, etc. For example, the latest price of Shanghai copper futures' main contract is 80,140 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.46% [18][23][33]. Aluminum - Price Outlook: Aluminum prices are expected to be oscillating with an upward bias in the short term, while alumina prices are under pressure. Cast aluminum alloy is relatively resilient [37][38][39]. - Market Data: Provide data on aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy futures and spot prices, inventory, and basis [40][54][63]. Zinc - Price Trend: In the short term, zinc prices show an overseas - strong and domestic - weak pattern and will mainly fluctuate [68]. - Market Data: Include zinc futures and spot prices, inventory data, etc. For example, the latest price of Shanghai zinc futures' main contract is 22,155 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.16% [69][74][79]. Nickel - Market Situation: Nickel ore prices decline slightly, other nickel products are stable, and the MHP benchmark price rises. Stainless - steel demand improves in the peak season, and sulfuric - nickel prices are stable [83]. - Market Data: Present data on nickel and stainless - steel futures prices, inventory, and downstream profit margins [84][93]. Tin - Price Driving Force: Tin prices are driven up by tight supply in the short term [98]. - Market Data: Include tin futures and spot prices, inventory data, etc. For example, the latest price of Shanghai tin futures' main contract is 272,460 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.16% [99][104][106]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Trend: The market is in an oscillating adjustment stage. The future trend depends on downstream receiving demand [110]. - Market Data: Provide data on lithium carbonate futures and spot prices, inventory, and price differences [111][113][117]. Silicon Industry Chain - Price Outlook: Industrial silicon prices are expected to be flat in September and have an upward expectation in the medium - to - long term. Polysilicon remains in a "wide - range oscillation" state [119]. - Market Data: Include industrial silicon and polysilicon spot and futures prices, inventory, and production data [120][121][140].