油脂油料产业日报-20250905

Report Information - Report Title: Oilseeds and Oils Industry Daily Report - Date: September 5, 2025 - Author: Xu Liang (Z0002220) - Reviewer: Tang Yun (Z0002422) Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Views Palm Oil - International Market: The Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures were closed for a public holiday and will resume trading next Monday. If the futures can effectively hold above 4,400 ringgit, there is a chance of continued upward movement. With favorable factors such as slower production growth or continued export growth, the futures may continue to rise after breaking through 4,500 ringgit. Otherwise, they may face downward pressure. Attention should be paid to the impact of next week's MPOB supply - demand data and the export data for the first 10 days of September from shipping agencies on the market [3]. - Domestic Market: The Dalian palm oil futures market showed a pattern of opening low and closing high, briefly rising above 9,500 yuan. After a rapid increase, it is expected to consolidate around 9,500 yuan. If it can effectively hold above this level and with the upward movement of Malaysian palm oil, there is a possibility of further upward movement. Attention should be paid to the guidance of Malaysian palm oil prices and whether the futures can hold above 9,500 yuan [3]. Soybean Oil - China - US negotiations have made little progress, and China has not imported US soybeans. As of September 2, the cumulative purchases for September, October, November, and December shipments were 850.2 million tons (100% progress), 706.2 million tons (88.28% progress), 85.5 million tons, and 6.6 million tons (1.47% progress) respectively. China still mainly relies on Brazilian soybeans, with the rest from Argentina and Uruguay. The soybean supply in the fourth quarter is expected to be insufficient, which will support the market. However, the current domestic soybean oil supply is still ample, and the international vegetable oil market has been affected by the pressure on crude oil (possible OPEC production increase). The increase of Dalian soybean oil futures is limited. The main January contract should first see if it can break through 8,500 yuan. If it does, the market will move further up; otherwise, it may return to around 8,300 yuan [4]. Oil Price Spreads - The report provides price spreads for various oil contracts, including P 1 - 5, P 5 - 9, Y - P 01, etc., along with their price changes and percentage changes [5]. Oil Futures and Spot Prices - Palm Oil: The report shows the prices and price changes of palm oil futures contracts (P 01, P 05, P 09) and spot prices in Guangzhou, as well as related spreads such as POGO and international毛豆 - 毛棕 [8]. - Soybean Oil: The prices and price changes of soybean oil futures contracts (Y 01, Y 05, Y 09), CBOT soybean oil futures, and Shandong soybean oil spot prices and spreads are presented [14]. Meal - Bean Meal: In a situation of weak current market conditions and strong future expectations, the main contract of Dalian bean meal futures fluctuated around 3,050 yuan. The spot market trading was slow, with oil mills' fixed - price quotes stable and near - month basis quotes down 10 - 20 yuan/ton. Due to low vehicle flow at the beginning of the month, slow trading, and increasing inventory pressure, some oil mills lowered prices to boost sales. End - users' inventories are safe due to rolling replenishment, and they are mainly fulfilling contracts. The short - term spot price is under pressure [18]. - Futures Prices: The report provides the closing prices, price changes, and percentage changes of bean meal (M 01, M 05, M 09), rapeseed meal (RM 01, RM 05, RM 09), CBOT soybeans, and the offshore RMB exchange rate [19]. - Meal Price Spreads: Price spreads between different bean meal and rapeseed meal contracts, as well as between bean meal and rapeseed meal, are provided, along with their price changes [20][22]. Pressing Profits - The report presents the international soybean pressing profits (US Gulf CNF and Brazilian CNF) and the pressing profits of imported rapeseed from Canada [35].