沪铅市场周报：联储降息有望来临，沪铅需求有望增加-20250905

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the Shanghai lead futures showed a volatile trend, with the main contract 2510 rising 0.12%. Overall, Shanghai lead showed a slight upward trend under the situation of declining supply and stable demand. Looking ahead, the supply of Shanghai lead is expected to decrease, and the demand will gradually increase. Coupled with the market's expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut, it is recommended to lay out long positions on lead prices at low levels. The main contract 2510 is expected to fluctuate upward, with a fluctuation range of 16700 - 17200 and a stop - loss range of 16500 - 17300 [3][4] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - Market Review: This week, the Shanghai lead futures fluctuated. The main contract 2510 was active, rising 0.12%. Overall, Shanghai lead showed a slight upward trend with declining supply and stable demand [4] - Market Outlook: On the supply side, primary lead production is expected to be stable, but the tight supply of lead concentrates may limit production. The supply of secondary lead has significant regional differences, and the tight supply of waste batteries restricts production. On the demand side, the demand for lead - acid batteries in the automotive sector is stable. The "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season is starting, and the demand in emerging energy - storage fields is positive. However, the overall demand is still in a slow recovery stage. In terms of inventory, foreign lead inventories decreased, domestic inventories increased, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased, with the overall inventory remaining unchanged. Overall, the supply of Shanghai lead is expected to decrease, and the demand will gradually increase [4] - Operation Suggestion: The main contract 2510 of Shanghai lead is expected to fluctuate upward, with a fluctuation range of 16700 - 17200 and a stop - loss range of 16500 - 17300. Pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control [4] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Price and Ratio: This week, the domestic futures price of Shanghai lead rose slightly compared with last week, the foreign futures price remained flat, and the ratio decreased. As of September 4, 2025, the LME 3 - month lead futures closing price was $1938/ton, the lead futures closing price of the active contract was 16805 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio was 8.67 [6][10] - Premium and Discount: The domestic futures premium and discount weakened, and the foreign premium and discount also weakened. As of September 4, 2025, the Chinese futures premium and discount was - 55 yuan/ton, and the LME lead premium and discount (0 - 3) was - 44.77 dollars/ton [12][14] - Inventory and Warehouse Receipts: Foreign lead inventories decreased, domestic inventories increased slightly, the number of warehouse receipts decreased, and the overall inventory of Shanghai lead decreased. As of September 4, 2025, the total lead inventory was 65300 tons (up 100 tons), the total LME lead inventory was 251200 tons (down 9850 tons), and the number of Shanghai lead warehouse receipts was 55044 tons (down 3107 tons) [28][32] 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - Supply - Primary Lead: The operating rate of primary lead enterprises increased, but the output decreased, with little overall impact. As of August 28, 2025, the average operating rate of primary lead in major producing areas was 78.2% (up 0.54% from last week), and the weekly output was 37100 tons (down 400 tons from last week) [18][20] - Supply - Secondary Lead: The capacity utilization rate and output of secondary lead enterprises decreased. It is currently in the off - season, with few waste battery scrapings, and the capacity is difficult to recover significantly. It is expected to recover next week. As of August 28, 2025, the domestic output of secondary lead in major producing areas was 19200 tons (down 2100 tons month - on - month), and the average capacity utilization rate was 45.76% (down 1.65% month - on - month) [23][26] - Supply - Number of Secondary Lead Enterprises: The number of secondary lead production enterprises remained the same. As of July 31, 2025, the total number of secondary lead production enterprises was 68 [34][36] - Supply - Lead Trade: Lead exports decreased significantly, while lead imports increased significantly. In July 2025, the refined lead export volume was 1795 tons (down 43.62% month - on - month, up 408.31% year - on - year), the refined lead import volume was 3417 tons, the lead alloy import volume was 12784 tons, the lead concentrate import volume was about 122300 tons (up 3.6% month - on - month, up 28.3% year - on - year), and the total lead ingot import volume was 13450 tons (up 6940 tons month - on - month, up 106.70%; down 9730 tons year - on - year, down 41.98%) [38][40] - Demand - Processing Fees: The domestic lead concentrate processing fees and imported ore processing fees decreased, which was generally negative for domestic production. As of September 4, 2025, the national average processing price of lead concentrates was 440 yuan/ton, and the average monthly processing fee TC for imported lead concentrates (Pb60) was - 90 dollars/kiloton [42][44] - Demand - Automobile Sales: The growth rate of automobile production and sales decreased, which affected the demand for lead. In July 2025, the automobile sales volume was 2.593 million (down 10.7% month - on - month, up 14.7% year - on - year), the passenger car sales volume was 2.287 million (down 9.8% month - on - month, up 4.7% year - on - year), the commercial vehicle sales volume was 306000 (down 17.1% month - on - month, up 14.1% year - on - year), and the new energy vehicle sales volume was 1.262 million (down 5% month - on - month, up 27.4% year - on - year) [46][48] - Demand - Battery Prices: The price of lead - acid batteries remained flat, while the price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, containing 2 - 4% antimony) increased. As of September 4, 2025, the average price of waste lead 48V/20AH batteries in Zhejiang was 394 yuan/group, and the price of lead - antimony alloy in Shanghai was 19900 yuan/ton [50][52]