Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Corn futures continued to rise this week, with the closing price of the main 2511 contract at 2,224 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan/ton from the previous week. The US corn production forecast may be adjusted downward, while in the domestic market, the approaching new - season corn listing and sufficient reserves have led to weak market sentiment. The corn futures price rebounded due to short - covering [8]. - Dalian corn starch futures fluctuated slightly higher at low levels, with the closing price of the main 2511 contract at 2,519 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton from the previous week. During the new - old corn transition period, the industry's operating rate declined, supply pressure eased, and demand improved slightly, resulting in a decrease in inventory pressure. However, the inventory is still high, and alternative starches are squeezing the market demand. The starch market rose under the influence of the corn price increase but was weaker than corn [12]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - to - Week Summary Corn - Market Review: The main 2511 contract of corn futures closed at 2,224 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan/ton from the previous week [8]. - Market Outlook: The US corn production forecast may be adjusted downward. In the domestic market, the approaching new - season corn listing, continuous reserve corn release, and sufficient enterprise inventories have led to weak market sentiment. The futures price rebounded due to short - covering [8]. - Strategy: Pay attention to the pressure at the 60 - day moving average and adopt a short - term wait - and - see approach [8]. Corn Starch - Market Review: The main 2511 contract of corn starch futures closed at 2,519 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton from the previous week [12]. - Market Outlook: During the new - old corn transition period, the industry's operating rate declined, supply pressure eased, and demand improved slightly, resulting in a decrease in inventory pressure. However, the inventory is still high, and alternative starches are squeezing the market demand. The starch market rose under the influence of the corn price increase but was weaker than corn [12]. - Strategy: Short - term wait - and - see [11]. 2. Futures and Spot Market Futures Price and Position Changes - The 11 - month contract of corn futures fluctuated and closed higher, with a total position of 915,637 lots, down 67,642 lots from the previous week. The 11 - month contract of corn starch futures fluctuated slightly higher, with a total position of 197,852 lots, down 11,035 lots from the previous week [16]. Top 20 Net Position Changes - The top 20 net position of corn futures was - 59,080, with a decrease in net short positions compared to last week. The top 20 net position of starch futures was - 46,611, with an increase in net short positions compared to last week [22]. Futures Warehouse Receipts - The registered warehouse receipts of yellow corn were 57,753 lots, and the registered warehouse receipts of corn starch were 7,450 lots [28]. Spot Price and Basis - As of September 4, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2,360.59 yuan/ton, and the basis between the active 11 - month contract and the spot average price was + 136 yuan/ton. The spot price of corn starch in Jilin was 2,850 yuan/ton, and in Shandong was 2,900 yuan/ton, showing a stable - to - weak trend this week. The basis between the 11 - month contract of corn starch and the spot price in Changchun, Jilin was 331 yuan/ton [33][37]. Futures Inter - month Spread - The 11 - 1 spread of corn was 20 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period. The 11 - 1 spread of starch was - 24 yuan/ton, also at a medium level in the same period [43]. Futures Spread between Starch and Corn - The spread between the 11 - month contracts of starch and corn was 295 yuan/ton. In the 36th week of 2025, the spread between Shandong corn and corn starch was 360 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous week [51]. Substitute Spread - As of September 4, 2025, the average spot price of wheat was 2,425.78 yuan/ton, and the average spot price of corn was 2,360.59 yuan/ton, with a wheat - corn spread of 65.19 yuan/ton. In the 36th week of 2025, the spread between tapioca starch and corn starch continued to widen, with an average spread of 212 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton from the previous week [57]. 3. Industry Chain Corn - Supply Side - Port Inventory: As of August 29, 2025, the domestic trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 73.5 tons, down 3.5 tons from the previous week, and the foreign trade inventory was 0 tons, unchanged from the previous week. The corn inventory in the four northern ports was 112.7 tons, down 14.5 tons week - on - week, and the shipping volume was 24 tons, down 3.1 tons week - on - week [47]. - Monthly Import Volume: In July 2025, China's ordinary corn import volume was 60,000 tons, a decrease of 1,030,000 tons (94.5%) compared to the same period last year and a decrease of 100,000 tons compared to the previous month [65]. - Feed Enterprise Inventory: As of September 4, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 27.63 days, down 0.5 days from the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 1.78% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.12% [69]. - Demand Side - Livestock Inventory: As of the end of the second quarter of 2025, the national pig inventory was 424.47 million, a year - on - year increase of 2.2%. As of the end of July, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.42 million, a decrease of 10,000 from the previous month, accounting for 103.6% of the normal reserve of 39 million [73]. - Breeding Profit: As of August 29, 2025, the self - breeding and self - raising pig breeding profit was 32.24 yuan/head, and the profit from purchasing piglets was - 148.41 yuan/head [77]. - Processing Profit: As of September 4, 2025, the corn starch processing profit in Jilin was - 110 yuan/ton. The corn alcohol processing profit in Henan was - 396 yuan/ton, in Jilin was - 680 yuan/ton, and in Heilongjiang was - 257 yuan/ton [82]. Corn Starch - Supply Side - Enterprise Inventory: As of September 3, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 2.711 million tons, a decrease of 7.85% [86]. - Starch Enterprise Operating Rate and Inventory: From August 28 to September 3, 2025, the national corn processing volume was 515,500 tons, down 23,700 tons from the previous week; the national corn starch output was 246,800 tons, down 17,100 tons from the previous week; the weekly operating rate was 47.7%, down 3.31% from the previous week. As of September 3, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 1.265 million tons, down 53,000 tons from the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 4.02%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.16%, and a year - on - year increase of 37.2% [90]. 4. Options Market Analysis - As of September 5, the implied volatility of the options corresponding to the main 2511 contract of corn was 9.39%, a decrease of 1.31% from 10.7% in the previous week. The implied volatility fluctuated and decreased this week, being at a relatively high level compared to the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatilities [93].
玉米类市场周报:前期空单止盈离场,推动盘面底部回弹-20250905
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-09-05 09:32