沪锡市场周报：供应担忧库存增加，预计锡价震荡调整-20250905

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the main contract of Shanghai Tin fell from a high, with a weekly decline of 2.22% and an amplitude of 2.86%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 272,460 yuan/ton. - Macroeconomically, the expansion speed of the US ISM Services PMI reached the fastest in half a year, with weak employment and high prices. The ADP employment growth in the US in August slowed down significantly to 54,000 people. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was 237,000, reaching the highest level since June. - Fundamentally, although Wa State in Myanmar has restarted the approval of mining licenses, actual ore production will not occur until the fourth quarter. The Bisie mine in Congo plans to resume production in phases, and currently, the tin ore processing fee remains at a historical low. - On the smelting side, the increase in production in July was mainly due to multiple factors such as the resumption of production by some enterprises and the cleaning of intermediate products. However, the shortage of raw materials in the Yunnan production area remains severe, and the waste recycling system in the Jiangxi production area is under pressure, with the operating rate remaining at a low level. - On the demand side, downstream processing enterprises are in the recovery period of the peak season, and the recovery of orders is relatively slow. Recently, the tin price has oscillated downward, but most downstream and end - user enterprises still adopt a wait - and - see attitude, and some downstream enterprises make small - scale purchases. The spot premium has rebounded to 200 yuan/ton, and domestic inventories have increased. LME inventories have rebounded, and the spot premium has been adjusted downward. - Technically, as the position decreases and the price falls, the bullish sentiment is cautious. Attention should be paid to the competition around the MA10. - Operationally, it is recommended to wait and see temporarily, and pay attention to the range of 270,000 - 276,000 yuan/ton. [5] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - Market Review: The main contract of Shanghai Tin fell from a high this week, with a weekly decline of 2.22% and an amplitude of 2.86%. The closing price of the main contract was 272,460 yuan/ton [5]. - Market Outlook: Macroeconomic data in the US shows mixed signals. Fundamentally, there are issues in both supply and demand. Technically, the market is cautious [5]. - Strategy Recommendation: It is recommended to wait and see temporarily and pay attention to the price range of 270,000 - 276,000 yuan/ton [5]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Price Movement: As of September 5, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai Tin was 272,030 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6,270 yuan/ton or 2.25% from August 29. As of September 4, 2025, the closing price of LME Tin was 34,425 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 400 US dollars/ton or 1.15% from August 29 [10]. - Ratio Changes: As of September 5, 2025, the current ratio of Shanghai Tin to Shanghai Nickel was 2.25, an increase of 0.02 from August 29. As of September 4, 2025, the Shanghai - LME Tin ratio was 7.9, an increase of 0.08 from August 28 [14]. - Position Changes: As of September 5, 2025, the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Tin was - 14 lots, an increase of 1,212 lots from September 1, 2025. The position of Shanghai Tin was 59,035 lots, a decrease of 15,494 lots or 20.79% from August 29 [20]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Supply Side - Tin Ore Imports and Refined Tin Production: In July 2025, the import of tin ore concentrates was 10,277.61 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.71% and a year - on - year decrease of 31.58%. From January to July, the import of tin ore concentrates was 72,406.18 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 32.15%. In July 2025, the refined tin production was 15,448 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8%. From January to July, the cumulative refined tin production was 87,175 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.34% [24][25]. - Tin Ore Processing Fee: On September 5, 2025, the processing fee for 60% tin concentrate was 6,500 yuan/ton, the same as on September 4, 2025; the processing fee for 40% tin concentrate was 10,500 yuan/ton, also the same as on September 4, 2025 [30]. - Refined Tin Import and Export and Profit: As of September 5, 2025, the tin import profit and loss was - 8,105.64 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12,552.71 yuan/ton from August 29, 2025. In July 2025, the refined tin import volume was 2,166.7 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 21.34% and a year - on - year increase of 157.87%. From January to July, the cumulative refined tin import was 15,110.63 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 47.88%. In July 2025, the refined tin export volume was 1,672.77 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15.23% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.76%. From January to July, the cumulative refined tin export was 13,463.29 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 32.99% [34][35]. - Inventory: As of September 5, 2025, the total LME tin inventory was 2,230 tons, an increase of 220 tons or 10.95% from August 29. The total tin inventory was 7,773 tons, an increase of 207 tons or 2.74% from last week. The tin futures inventory was 7,397 tons, an increase of 124 tons or 1.7% from August 29 [43]. Demand Side - Semiconductor Index: On September 4, 2025, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index was 5,667.86, a decrease of 156.75 or 2.69% from August 27. From January to July 2025, the integrated circuit production was 29,454,570.7 million pieces, an increase of 5,009,313.4 million pieces or 20.49% compared with the same period last year [46]. - Tin - Coated Plate: As of July 2025, the tin - coated plate production was 110,000 tons, the same as in June 2025. The tin - coated plate export volume was 206,020.05 tons, an increase of 73,104.23 tons or 55% from June [49].