Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. Core Viewpoints - This week, the main contract of Shanghai Zinc oscillated at a low level, with a weekly change of +0.07% and an amplitude of 1.76%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 22,155 yuan/ton [4]. - Macroscopically, the expansion speed of the US ISM Services PMI reached the fastest in half a year, with weak employment and still high prices. The ADP employment growth in the US in August slowed down significantly to 54,000 people, and the number of initial jobless claims last week rose to 237,000, the highest since June [4]. - Fundamentally, the import volume of zinc ore at home and abroad has increased, and the zinc ore processing fee has continued to rise. Coupled with the obvious increase in sulfuric acid prices, the profits of smelters have been further repaired, and the production enthusiasm has increased. New production capacities in various places have been gradually released, and the resumption of production of previously overhauled capacities has accelerated the supply growth. Currently, the import loss continues to expand, and the inflow of imported zinc has decreased. On the demand side, the downstream is at the end of the off - season. The inventory pressure of galvanized sheets is not large, and the operating rate of processing enterprises has shown a stable and rising trend. Recently, zinc prices have fallen to a low level, but downstream enterprises have maintained the action of purchasing on demand, with a dull trading atmosphere. Domestic social inventories have increased, and the spot premium has slightly increased at a low level. Overseas LME inventories have decreased significantly, and the spot premium has risen, which provides support for zinc prices [4]. - Technically, the position has increased while the price has fallen, and the short - selling sentiment has heated up. Attention should be paid to the support at the 22,000 mark [4]. - Operationally, it is recommended to wait and see for the time being, or go long lightly on dips [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - to - Week Key Points Summary - Market Review: The main contract of Shanghai Zinc oscillated at a low level this week, with a weekly change of +0.07% and an amplitude of 1.76%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 22,155 yuan/ton [4]. - Market Outlook: Macroeconomic indicators in the US show mixed signals. Fundamentally, supply is increasing while demand is still in the off - season transition. Technically, the short - selling atmosphere is rising [4]. - Strategy Recommendation: It is recommended to wait and see or go long lightly on dips [4]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - Futures Prices: This week, Shanghai Zinc futures prices were weak, and the Shanghai - London ratio decreased. As of September 5, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai Zinc was 22,155 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton or 0.07% from August 29, 2025. As of September 4, 2025, the closing price of London Zinc was 2,838 US dollars/ton, up 51 US dollars/ton or 1.83% from August 29, 2025 [7]. - Net Positions of Top 20 Traders: As of September 5, 2025, the net position of the top 20 traders in Shanghai Zinc was - 11,394 lots, a decrease of 3,473 lots from August 29, 2025. The open interest of Shanghai Zinc was 226,104 lots, an increase of 2,413 lots or 1.08% from August 29, 2025 [11]. - Price Spreads: As of September 5, 2025, the aluminum - zinc futures price spread was 1,460 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan/ton from August 29, 2025. The lead - zinc futures price spread was 5,255 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton from August 29, 2025 [15]. - Spot Premiums: As of September 5, 2025, the spot price of 0 zinc ingots was 22,060 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton or 0.18% from August 29, 2025. The spot discount was 65 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from last week. As of September 4, 2025, the LME zinc near - month to 3 - month spread was 16.21 US dollars/ton, an increase of 19.51 US dollars/ton from August 28, 2025 [21]. - Inventories: As of September 4, 2025, LME refined zinc inventories were 54,750 tons, a decrease of 3,250 tons or 5.6% from August 28, 2025. As of September 5, 2025, Shanghai Futures Exchange refined zinc inventories were 87,032 tons, an increase of 1,052 tons or 1.22% from last week. As of September 4, 2025, domestic refined zinc social inventories were 138,300 tons, an increase of 8,400 tons or 6.47% from August 28, 2025 [24]. 3. Industry Situation - Upstream: In June 2025, global zinc ore production was 1.0814 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.86% and a year - on - year increase of 7.11%. In July 2025, the import volume of zinc ore concentrates was 501,424.97 tons, a month - on - month increase of 51.97% and a year - on - year increase of 37.75% [30]. - Supply Side - Global Refined Zinc Supply: According to ILZSG data, in June 2025, global refined zinc production was 1.1565 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 26,300 tons or 2.22%; global refined zinc consumption was 1.1837 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 31,100 tons or 2.7%; the global refined zinc gap was 27,200 tons, compared with a surplus of 30,200 tons in the same period last year. According to the WBMS report, in June 2024, the global zinc market supply - demand balance was - 27,800 tons [35][36]. - Supply Side - Refined Zinc Production: In July 2025, zinc production was 617,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.8%. From January to July, the cumulative zinc output was 4.166 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.3% [39]. - Supply Side - Refined Zinc Imports: In July 2025, the import volume of refined zinc was 17,903.91 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.97%; the export volume of refined zinc was 406.07 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 85.11% [42]. - Downstream - Galvanized Sheets: From January to July 2025, the inventory of galvanized sheets (strips) of major domestic enterprises was 790,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.92%. In July 2025, the import volume of galvanized sheets (strips) was 30,900 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 39.92%; the export volume was 346,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 43.29% [45]. - Downstream - Real Estate: From January to July 2025, the new housing start - up area was 352.0614 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 19.5%; the housing completion area was 250.3441 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 21.19%. The funds in place for real estate development enterprises were 5.728655 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 7.5%; among them, personal mortgage loans were 791.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 9.3% [50][51]. - Downstream - Infrastructure Investment: In July 2025, the real estate development climate index was 93.34, down 0.25 from the previous month and up 1.23 from the same period last year. From January to July 2025, infrastructure investment increased by 7.29% year - on - year [56]. - Downstream - Home Appliances: In July 2025, refrigerator production was 8.7307 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5%. From January to July, the cumulative refrigerator production was 59.6315 million units, a year - on - year increase of 0.9%. In July 2025, air - conditioner production was 20.5965 million units, a year - on - year increase of 1.5%. From January to July, the cumulative air - conditioner production was 183.4554 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5.1% [60]. - Downstream - Automobiles: In July 2025, the sales volume of Chinese automobiles was 2,593,410 units, a year - on - year increase of 14.66%; the production volume was 2,591,084 units, a year - on - year increase of 13.33% [63].
沪锌市场周报：需求平淡库存续增，预计锌价震荡调整-20250905
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-09-05 09:32