热轧卷板市场周报：市场多空分歧加剧，热卷期价先抑后扬-20250905

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - The HC2601 contract of hot-rolled coils can be traded in the range of 3300 - 3400 yuan/ton, considering the increasing expectations of loose monetary policies in China and the US, and the expected improvement in demand after the resumption of work in enterprises in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region following the end of the military parade [9] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - on - Week Summary 1.1 Market Review - As of September 5, the closing price of the main hot - rolled coil futures contract was 3340 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton, and the spot price of Hangzhou Lianggang hot - rolled coils was 3400 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton [7] - Hot - rolled coil production decreased to 314.24 million tons, down 10.5 million tons week - on - week but up 3.76 million tons year - on - year [7] - Apparent demand declined to 305.36 million tons, down 15.36 million tons week - on - week and 4.01 million tons year - on - year [7] - Total inventory of hot - rolled coils increased slightly to 374.34 million tons, up 8.88 million tons week - on - week but down 68.64 million tons year - on - year [7] - The profitability rate of steel mills was 61.04%, down 2.60 percentage points week - on - week but up 56.71 percentage points year - on - year [7] 1.2 Market Outlook - Macro aspect: Overseas, the US Court of Appeals ruled that most of the global tariff policies implemented by former President Trump were illegal; the market is focusing on the US non - farm payroll data on Friday, and weak data may trigger discussions on a 50 - basis - point interest rate cut. Domestically, the China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index in August was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month, and the central bank conducted a 100 - billion - yuan 3 - month outright reverse repurchase operation on September 5 [9] - Supply - demand aspect: Weekly production of hot - rolled coils decreased, with a capacity utilization rate of 80.27%; terminal demand was affected, inventory increased, and apparent demand declined [9] - Cost aspect: The port inventory of iron ore increased slightly, and the expected improvement in demand supported the firmness of iron ore prices. The capacity utilization rate of coking coal mines decreased to 75.8%, and the decline in clean coal inventory supported the rebound of coking coal prices [9] - Technical aspect: The HC2601 contract was consolidating in a range, with technical support around 3300 yuan/ton, and it was testing the pressure of the MA10/MA20 moving averages in the short term; the downward momentum of the DIFF and DEA in the MACD indicator weakened, and the green bars shrank [9] 2. Futures and Spot Market 2.1 Futures Price - The HC2601 contract first declined and then rebounded this week. The HC2510 contract was stronger than the HC2601 contract, and the price difference on September 5 was 26 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton week - on - week [15] 2.2 Warehouse Receipts and Positions - On September 5, the warehouse receipt volume of hot - rolled coils on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 25,059 tons, down 601 tons week - on - week. The net short position of the top 20 futures contracts of hot - rolled coils was 113,503 lots, an increase of 10,966 lots from the previous week [22] 2.3 Spot Price - On September 5, the spot price of 5.75mm Q235 hot - rolled coils in Shanghai was 3400 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton week - on - week; the national average price was 3420 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan/ton week - on - week. This week, the spot price of hot - rolled coils was weaker than the futures price, and the basis on September 5 was 60 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan/ton week - on - week [26] 3. Upstream Market 3.1 Raw Material Prices - On September 5, the price of 61% Australian Macfarlane iron ore at Qingdao Port was 837 yuan/dry ton, up 9 yuan/dry ton week - on - week. The spot price of first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1670 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week [33] 3.2 Iron Ore Arrival and Inventory - From August 25 - 31, 2025, the total arrival volume of 47 ports in China increased. The total arrival volume of 47 ports was 26.45 million tons, up 1.827 million tons week - on - week; the total arrival volume of 45 ports was 25.26 million tons, up 1.327 million tons week - on - week; the arrival volume of the six northern ports was 13.008 million tons, up 1.478 million tons week - on - week [38] - This week, the total inventory of imported iron ore in 47 ports in China was 144.2572 million tons, up 0.377 million tons week - on - week; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.3033 million tons, down 0.0381 million tons. In terms of components, the inventory of Australian ore was 60.1702 million tons, down 1.1329 million tons; the inventory of Brazilian ore was 54.9296 million tons, up 0.662 million tons; the inventory of traded ore was 91.6996 million tons, down 0.5806 million tons [42] 3.3 Coking Plant Conditions - This week, the capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises in China was 72.61%, down 0.09 percentage points; the daily average coke output was 51.21, down 0.07; the coke inventory was 40.71, up 0.9; the total inventory of coking coal was 780.95, down 38.92; the available days of coking coal were 11.5 days, down 0.55 days [46] 4. Industry Conditions 4.1 Supply Side - In July 2025, the national crude steel output was 79.66 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.0%; from January to July, the cumulative national crude steel output was 594.47 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.1% [49] - In July 2025, China's steel exports were 9.836 million tons, an increase of 0.158 million tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 1.6%; from January to July, the cumulative steel exports were 67.983 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.4%. In July, China's steel imports were 0.452 million tons, a decrease of 0.018 million tons from the previous month, a month - on - month decrease of 3.8%; from January to July, the cumulative steel imports were 3.476 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15.7% [49] - On September 5, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 80.4%, down 2.80 percentage points week - on - week but up 2.77 percentage points year - on - year; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 85.79%, down 4.23 percentage points week - on - week but up 2.19 percentage points year - on - year; the daily average hot metal output was 2.2884 million tons, down 0.1129 million tons week - on - week but up 0.0623 million tons year - on - year [52] - On September 4, the weekly output of hot - rolled coils of 37 hot - rolled coil production enterprises was 31.424 million tons, down 1.05 million tons from the previous week but up 0.376 million tons year - on - year [52] - On September 4, the in - plant inventory of hot - rolled coils of 37 hot - rolled coil production enterprises was 7.998 million tons, up 0.003 million tons from the previous week but down 1.447 million tons year - on - year. The social inventory of 33 major cities was 29.436 million tons, up 0.858 million tons week - on - week but down 5.417 million tons year - on - year. The total inventory of hot - rolled coils was 37.434 million tons, up 0.888 million tons week - on - week but down 6.864 million tons year - on - year [57] 4.2 Demand Side - In July 2025, the production and sales of automobiles were 2.593 million and 2.591 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 14.7% and 13.3%. From January to July, the cumulative production and sales of automobiles were 18.235 million and 18.269 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 12.7% and 12.0% [60] - From January to July 2025, the cumulative production of household air conditioners was 183.4554 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5.1%; the production of household refrigerators was 59.6315 million units, a year - on - year increase of 0.9%; the production of household washing machines was 68.1282 million units, a year - on - year increase of 9.4% [60]