瑞达期货甲醇市场周报-20250905

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2390 - 2490 in the short - term [7] - Recently, the output of restored methanol production capacity in China is more than the loss of capacity due to maintenance and production cuts, leading to a slight increase in overall production. The inventory of inland enterprises has increased this week. The port inventory has continued to accumulate significantly as expected, and the reverse flow to the inland has significantly boosted the import demand. Next week, the arrival of foreign vessels will change little, and the port inventory is expected to continue to accumulate. The short - term industry operating rate may decline slightly after hedging [8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - Strategy suggestion: The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2390 - 2490 in the short - term [7] - Market review: The average price of the domestic port methanol market continued to decline this week with a reduced amplitude. The inland methanol market also continued to decline. The price of Ordos in the main production area fluctuated between 2042 - 2057 yuan/ton, and the receiving price in Dongying fluctuated at 2295 yuan/ton [8] - Market outlook: The overall production has increased slightly. The inland enterprise inventory has increased, and the port inventory has continued to accumulate significantly. The import demand may be stable next week, and the port inventory is expected to continue to accumulate. The short - term industry operating rate may decline slightly [8] 3.2 Futures Market - Price trend: The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou methanol futures fluctuated and closed higher this week, with a +2.29% increase [12] - Inter - delivery spread: As of September 5, the MA 1 - 5 spread was 5 [14] - Position analysis: As of September 4, the number of Zhengzhou methanol warehouse receipts was 10,036, an increase of 290 from last week [22] 3.3 Spot Market - Domestic price: As of September 5, the mainstream price in East China's Taicang was 2275 yuan/ton, an increase of 52.5 yuan/ton from last week; the mainstream price in Northwest Inner Mongolia was 2067.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 17 yuan/ton from last week. The price difference between East and Northwest China was 207.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 35 yuan/ton from last week [28] - Overseas price: As of September 4, the CFR price of methanol at the Chinese main port was 259 US dollars/ton, an increase of 1 US dollar/ton from last week. The price difference between Southeast Asia and the Chinese main port was 63 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1 US dollar/ton from last week [34] - Basis: As of September 5, the basis of Zhengzhou methanol was - 140 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.5 yuan/ton from last week [39] 3.4 Industrial Chain Analysis - Upstream: As of September 3, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with 5500 kcal was 675 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton from last week. As of September 4, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.08 US dollars/million British thermal units, an increase of 0.06 US dollars/million British thermal units from last week [42] - Industry: As of September 4, China's methanol production was 1,962,815 tons, an increase of 43,690 tons from last week, and the device capacity utilization rate was 86.63%, a month - on - month increase of 2.07%. As of September 3, the total port inventory was 1.4277 million tons, an increase of 128,400 tons from the previous period. The inventory of sample production enterprises was 341,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.31%. The order backlog of sample enterprises was 241,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.20%. In July 2025, China's methanol imports were 1.1027 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.63%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative imports were 6.48 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.66%. As of September 4, the import profit was 11.15 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.42 yuan/ton from last week [47][50][53] - Downstream: As of September 4, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins devices was 87.07%, a month - on - month increase of 0.62%. As of September 5, the domestic methanol - to - olefins spot profit was - 1084 yuan/ton, a decrease of 175 yuan/ton from last week [56][59]