合成橡胶市场周报-20250905

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the price of domestic Shandong market cis - butadiene rubber fluctuated within a narrow range, and the mainstream ex - factory price of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber in China was between 12,100 - 12,200 yuan/ton. The overall supply of domestic cis - butadiene rubber is sufficient, but some private enterprises in Shandong and East China are expected to undergo maintenance. With the raw material market being generally strong, some traders and downstream buyers have increased their purchases. The inventory of production enterprises decreased slightly this week, while that of trading enterprises increased. Next week, the supply will decrease slightly, and the inventory of production enterprises and sample trading may decline. In terms of demand, the overall capacity utilization rate will increase next week, but the increase may be limited. The br2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,900 - 12,500 yuan [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - Market Review: The price of domestic Shandong market cis - butadiene rubber fluctuated within a narrow range, with the spot price between 11,600 - 12,000 yuan/ton, and the mainstream ex - factory price of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber in China at 12,100 - 12,200 yuan/ton as of September 4, 2025 [7]. - Market Outlook: Most previously shut - down cis - butadiene rubber plants have restarted, and domestic production has recovered. Some private enterprises in Shandong and East China are expected to undergo maintenance. The inventory of production enterprises decreased slightly this week, and that of trading enterprises increased. Next week, some plants are expected to shut down for about 20 days, and the supply will decrease slightly. The overall capacity utilization rate will increase next week, but the increase may be limited [7]. - Strategy Recommendation: The br2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,900 - 12,500 yuan [7]. 3.2 Futures Market - Price Trend: The price of the synthetic rubber futures main contract fluctuated and closed higher this week, with a weekly increase of 2.61% [11]. - Position Analysis: Not detailed in the given content. - Inter - period Spread: As of September 5, the spread between butadiene rubber contracts 10 - 11 was 5 [18]. - Warehouse Receipts: As of September 4, the cis - butadiene rubber warehouse receipts were 2,770 tons, an increase of 280 tons from last week [21]. 3.3 Spot Market - Price and Basis: As of September 4, the price of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 in the Shandong market was 11,810 yuan/ton, a decrease of 140 yuan/ton from last week. The basis of butadiene rubber was 90 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton from last week [25]. 3.4 Upstream Market - Naphtha and Ethylene Prices: As of September 4, the CFR middle price of naphtha in Japan was 592.5 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1.38 US dollars/ton from last week; the CIF middle price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 840 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 2 US dollars/ton from last week [29]. - Butadiene Capacity Utilization and Port Inventory: As of September 5, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 68.45%, an increase of 0.54% from last week; the butadiene port inventory was 30,950 tons, an increase of 6,950 tons from last week [32]. 3.5 Industry Situation - Cis - butadiene Rubber Production and Capacity Utilization: In August 2025, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber production was 135,700 tons, an increase of 16,500 tons from last month. As of September 4, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic cis - butadiene rubber was 76.16%, an increase of 0.31% from last week [35]. - Cis - butadiene Rubber Production Profit: As of September 4, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber production profit was - 462 yuan/ton, an increase of 12 yuan/ton from last week [38]. - Cis - butadiene Rubber Inventory: As of September 5, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber social inventory was 31,910 tons, an increase of 190 tons from last week; the inventory of manufacturers was 24,650 tons, a decrease of 450 tons from last week; the inventory of traders was 7,260 tons, an increase of 640 tons from last week [42]. 3.6 Downstream Market - Tire开工率: As of September 4, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.92%, a decrease of 4.05 percentage points month - on - month and 12.98 percentage points year - on - year; the capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises was 60.74%, a decrease of 4.15 percentage points month - on - month and 1.12 percentage points year - on - year [45]. - Tire Exports: In July 2025, China's tire export volume was 812,600 tons, an increase of 8.87% month - on - month and 11.48% year - on - year. From January to July, the cumulative tire export volume was 4,933,900 tons, a cumulative increase of 7.18% year - on - year [48].