工业硅多晶硅市场周报：双硅强势突破区间，消息影响驱动行情-20250905

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, industrial silicon rose 5.13% and polysilicon rose 14.49%. The industrial silicon futures market showed a trend of first falling and then rising, while the polysilicon futures market broke through the platform [4]. - For industrial silicon, next week's supply is expected to increase, mainly due to the significant increase in production in Southwest China during the wet season. The demand from the three major downstream industries remains flat, and the industry inventory is still at a high level. It is recommended to trade the main contract in the range of 8000 - 9000, with a stop - loss range of 7500 - 9500 [4]. - For polysilicon, the supply is increasing and the demand is weakening. It is expected that the market will continue to adjust next week. It is recommended to trade the main contract in the range of 52000 - 58000, with a stop - loss range of 49000 - 60000 [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Key Points Summary - Market Review: Industrial silicon rose 5.13% and polysilicon rose 14.49% this week. The industrial silicon futures market was volatile, and the polysilicon futures market broke through the platform on Friday [4]. - Market Outlook: - Industrial Silicon: Supply is expected to increase, especially in Southwest China. The demand from organic silicon, polysilicon, and aluminum alloy industries remains flat. The industry inventory is high, and inventory digestion faces pressure [4]. - Polysilicon: Supply is increasing, but the increase is expected to be limited. Demand is weakening due to weak terminal demand. The market is expected to continue to adjust next week [4]. - Operation Suggestions: Trade the industrial silicon main contract in the range of 8000 - 9000, with a stop - loss range of 7500 - 9500. Trade the polysilicon main contract in the range of 52000 - 58000, with a stop - loss range of 49000 - 60000 [4]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures Prices: Both industrial silicon and polysilicon futures prices rose this week [5]. - Spot Prices and Basis: Industrial silicon spot prices rose, and the basis strengthened. Polysilicon spot prices also rose, and the basis strengthened [10][14]. - Industrial Silicon Production and Capacity Utilization: As of September 4, 2025, the national industrial silicon production was about 8.11 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 55.85% [19]. 3.3 Industry Situation - Cost: This week, industrial silicon raw materials and electricity prices remained flat. During the wet season, the overall cost remained low [21]. - Warehouse Receipts: As of September 4, 2025, the number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts was 50072, a decrease of 637 compared with the previous week [28]. - Downstream Industries: - Organic Silicon: Production and operating rate remained flat. Due to cost and price declines, profits decreased. It is expected that production will remain stable, and the demand for industrial silicon will remain flat [30][37]. - Aluminum Alloy: Spot prices rose, and inventory continued to increase. The demand for industrial silicon is expected to be negative [43]. - Silicon Wafer and Battery Cell: Silicon wafer prices were flat, and battery cell prices remained the same. The demand for polysilicon is expected to increase slightly [50]. - Polysilicon Industry: Cost and profit increased, and inventory decreased. As of September 5, polysilicon profit was 12070 yuan/ton, the average cost was 39430 yuan/ton, and inventory was 26.8 million tons [57][63].