集运指数(欧线)期货周报-20250905
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-09-05 09:45
- Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. 2. Core View of the Report - The freight rates are still suppressed by the fundamentals in the short term. With demand not significantly improving, over - capacity remains a huge pressure on the supply side, limiting the recovery space of shipping prosperity. - The implementation of the price increase announced by leading shipping companies in December depends on the cargo volume in the fourth quarter. Although the euro - zone economic data has improved, the overall situation is not optimistic. - The uncertainty of tariffs is too high. Despite short - term improvements, the market is generally in a wait - and - see mode. - Freight and industry profitability are expected to be under pressure, and this traditional peak season may show the characteristic of "not a real peak season", with freight rates expected to fluctuate weakly. [6][39] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Market Review - The prices of container shipping index (European line) futures rose collectively this week. The main contract EC2510 closed up 3.4%, and the far - month contracts rose between 3 - 10%. - The latest SCFIS European line settlement freight rate index was 1773.6, down 216.6 points from last week, a 10.9% decline. - The trading volume and open interest of the EC2510 contract declined this week. [6][9][16] 3.2. News Review and Analysis - The US Federal Circuit Court of Appeals ruled that most of the global tariff measures implemented by President Trump were illegal, which is bullish for the market. - MSC plans to adjust the capacity of Asia - to - Europe routes from week 39 to week 41 due to expected slowdown in demand during the Golden Week, with four voyages cancelled, which is neutral to bearish. - The implementation of the US - Japan trade agreement and Japan's plan to increase US rice purchases are bearish. - The Fed's Beige Book shows that economic activity in most parts of the US has hardly changed, which is neutral. [19] 3.3. Weekly Market Data - The basis and spread of container shipping index (European line) futures contracts converged this week. - The export container freight rate index declined this week. - Container shipping capacity declined in the short term. - The BDI and BPI rebounded due to geopolitical factors. - The charter price of Panamax ships rebounded rapidly this week. - The spread between the offshore and on - shore RMB against the US dollar fluctuated mainly. [22][24][28][32] 3.4. Market Outlook and Strategy - The prices of container shipping index (European line) futures rose collectively this week, but the spot index continued to decline, pulling down the futures prices. - The "price war" has put continuous pressure on the fundamentals. - The weakening US labor market has increased the market's expectation of an interest rate cut this month. - The euro - zone internal demand is still weak. - Overall, the freight rates are expected to fluctuate weakly, and factors such as the actual follow - up of shipping companies' cabin opening prices in December, the frequency of Houthi attacks, and trade - war related information need to be continuously monitored. [38][39]