瑞达期货尿素市场周报-20250905

Group 1: Report Summary - This is a weekly report on the urea market from the Ruida Futures Research Institute dated September 5, 2025 [2] - The report includes sections on weekly highlights, futures and spot markets, and industrial chain analysis [4] Group 2: Weekly Highlights - The domestic urea market continued to fluctuate at a low level this week. As of Thursday, the mainstream ex - factory price of small and medium - sized granules in Shandong dropped to 1650 - 1700 yuan/ton, with an average price down 5 yuan/ton week - on - week [6] - Some new plants are under maintenance, and no shut - down plants have resumed. Domestic urea daily output has decreased. Next week, 3 enterprises plan to shut down, and 2 - 4 shut - down enterprises will resume production. Output changes will be limited [6] - Domestic agricultural demand is in the seasonal off - season, with a slight increase in fertilizer preparation in Jiangsu and Anhui. Industrial compound fertilizer has a certain stock of raw materials, so short - term replenishment of urea may decline. Next week, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer will gradually recover [6] - Domestic demand is advancing slowly, and some enterprises' shipments are below expectations. This week, domestic urea enterprise inventories varied, with the overall inventory level increasing slightly. After major events, downstream industrial开工 is expected to increase, and with phased urea exports, enterprise inventories are likely to decline [6] - The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1700 - 1760 yuan in the short term [6] Group 3: Futures Market - The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou urea futures fluctuated and closed down this week, with a weekly decline of 1.89% [10] - As of September 5, the UR 1 - 5 spread was - 43 [12] - As of September 4, there were 7928 Zhengzhou urea warehouse receipts, an increase of 1455 from last week [20] Group 4: Spot Market - As of September 4, the mainstream price in Shandong was 1700 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Jiangsu, it was 1710 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [26] - As of September 4, the FOB price of urea in China was 435 US dollars/ton, down 12.5 US dollars/ton from last week [30] - As of September 4, the urea basis was - 14 yuan/ton, an increase of 31 yuan/ton from last week [34] Group 5: Upstream Situation - As of September 3, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with 5500 kcal was 675 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton from last week [37] - As of September 4, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.08 US dollars/million British thermal units, up 0.06 US dollars/million British thermal units from last week [37] Group 6: Industrial Situation - As of September 4, China's urea production was 127.9 tons, a decrease of 7.02 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decline of 5.20%. The capacity utilization rate was 78.10%, a decrease of 4.29% from the previous period [40] - As of September 4, China's urea port sample inventory was 62.09 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.09 tons, a growth rate of 3.48%. As of September 3, the total inventory of domestic urea enterprises was 109.50 tons, an increase of 0.92 tons from last week, a week - on - week increase of 0.85% [44] - In July 2025, China's urea export volume was 56.72 tons, a month - on - month increase of 756.80% and a year - on - year increase of 614.36% [47] Group 7: Downstream Situation - As of September 4, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer was 33.08%, a week - on - week decrease of 6.14 percentage points. It will gradually recover next week. The average weekly capacity utilization rate of melamine was 58.98%, an increase of 0.48 percentage points from last week [50]