菜籽类市场周报：贸易谈判消息影响，菜系品种相对震荡-20250905

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For rapeseed oil, it's recommended to take a bullish approach and monitor the China - Canada talks. This week, rapeseed oil futures fluctuated slightly higher. The temporary anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed may impact its exports and put pressure on prices. However, the Canadian Prime Minister's involvement in resolving the tariff dispute, concerns about palm oil production and transportation in Indonesia, and strong palm oil export data in Malaysia support the market. Domestically, the terminal consumption boost from the start of school is limited, and the supply - demand of vegetable oils is still relatively loose. But the low oil mill operating rate and fewer near - month rapeseed purchases reduce supply pressure, and the anti - dumping measures weaken long - term supply. The rapeseed oil market is expected to maintain a narrow - range fluctuation in the near term [8][9]. - For rapeseed meal, it's advisable to hold a bullish view and focus on China - US and China - Canada economic and trade relations. This week, rapeseed meal futures fluctuated slightly higher. The Pro Farmer report shows a high expected US soybean yield, indicating supply pressure. However, the unexpected reduction in planting area supports the market. Domestically, the low near - month rapeseed arrivals, the peak season of aquaculture, and the anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed reduce supply pressure. But the good substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation for rapeseed meal. The ongoing trade negotiations between China - Canada and China - US make the market cautious [11][12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Weekly Key Points Summary - Rapeseed oil: The 01 contract closed at 9,818 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan/ton from the previous week. It's recommended to be bullish and pay attention to China - Canada talks [8][9]. - Rapeseed meal: The 01 contract closed at 2,550 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan/ton from the previous week. It's recommended to be bullish and focus on China - US and China - Canada economic and trade relations [11][12]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - Futures market: This week, rapeseed oil futures fluctuated lower, with a total position of 249,260 lots, down 14,341 lots from last week; rapeseed meal futures fell from a high, with a total position of 396,574 lots, down 17,596 lots from the previous week [17]. - Top 20 net positions: This week, the top 20 net position of rapeseed oil futures changed from net long to net short (- 2,779); the top 20 net position of rapeseed meal futures changed from net short to net long (+ 2,999) [23]. - Registered warehouse receipts: The registered warehouse receipts of rapeseed oil are 6,028 lots; the registered warehouse receipts of rapeseed meal are 6,761 lots [29][30]. - Spot price and basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9,960 yuan/ton, slightly rising from last week, and the basis is + 142 yuan/ton; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong, Jiangsu is 2,540 yuan/ton, with little change, and the basis is - 10 yuan/ton [36][42]. - Inter - month spread: The 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed oil is + 158 yuan/ton, at a medium level in recent years; the 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed meal is + 89 yuan/ton, also at a medium level in recent years [48]. - Futures - spot ratio: The ratio of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal 01 contracts is 3.85; the average spot price ratio is 3.92 [51]. - Price difference between rapeseed oil and other oils: The 01 contract spread of rapeseed oil - soybean oil is 1,368 yuan/ton, with relative fluctuation this week; the 01 contract spread of rapeseed oil - palm oil is 292 yuan/ton, narrowing this week [61]. - Price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal: The 01 contract spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal is 517 yuan/ton; as of Thursday, the spot spread is 430 yuan/ton [67]. 3.3. Industry Situation - Rapeseed supply: As of August 29, 2025, the total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 100,000 tons; the estimated arrivals in August, September, and October 2025 are 200,000, 130,000, and 150,000 tons respectively. As of September 4, the spot crushing profit of imported rapeseed is + 1,123 yuan/ton. By the 35th week of 2025, the crushing volume of rapeseed in coastal oil mills is 48,000 tons, up 3,000 tons from last week, and the operating rate is 11.74%. In July 2025, the total import volume of rapeseed is 176,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 56.63% and a month - on - month decrease of 0.85 tons [73][77][81]. - Rapeseed oil supply: By the end of the 35th week of 2025, the inventory of imported and crushed rapeseed oil is 737,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.20%. In July 2025, the total import volume of rapeseed oil is 133,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.86% and a month - on - month decrease of 16,700 tons [89]. - Rapeseed oil demand: As of June 30, 2025, the monthly output of edible vegetable oil is 476,900 tons; as of July 31, 2025, the monthly catering revenue is 450.41 billion yuan. By the end of the 35th week of 2025, the contract volume of imported and crushed rapeseed oil is 139,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 43.61% [93][97]. - Rapeseed meal supply: By the end of the 35th week of 2025, the inventory of imported and crushed rapeseed meal is 19,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.52%. In July 2025, the total import volume of rapeseed meal is 183,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.00% and a month - on - month decrease of 87,200 tons [101][105]. - Rapeseed meal demand: As of July 31, 2025, the monthly output of feed is 2,827,300 tons [109]. 3.4. Options Market Analysis As of September 5, the implied volatility of rapeseed meal options is 21.53%, down 0.24% from last week, at a slightly medium level compared to the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility of the underlying [113].