白糖市场周报-20250905

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract decreased with a weekly decline of approximately 1.45%. The International Sugar Organization (ISO) predicts that the global sugar supply - demand gap in the 2025/26 season will be only 231,000 tons, significantly smaller than the revised value of 4.879 million tons in the 2024/25 season. This gap can be ignored before the new season starts. In China, the sugar sales data in Guangxi and Yunnan in August decreased year - on - year. However, as the downstream is in the stocking period for the Double Festivals, rigid demand is expected to support prices, and short - term sugar price declines may be limited. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach for the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - Market Review: The price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract fell this week, with a weekly decline of about 1.45% [5]. - Market Outlook: The global sugar supply - demand gap in 2025/26 is expected to be 231,000 tons. In China, August sugar sales in Guangxi and Yunnan decreased year - on - year. Guangxi sold 260,200 tons in August, a year - on - year decrease of 96,900 tons, and Yunnan sold 130,900 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10,100 tons. But the downstream's Double Festival stocking may support prices [5]. - Trading Strategy: It is recommended to take a short - term wait - and - see approach for the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract [5]. - Future Focus: Domestic production and sales, and Double Festival stocking [5] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - US Sugar Market: The price of the US Sugar October contract dropped this week, with a weekly decline of about 3.92%. As of August 26, 2025, the non - commercial net short position in raw sugar futures was 74,738 lots, an increase of 4,445 lots from the previous week. Long positions were 190,535 lots, a decrease of 2,556 lots, and short positions were 265,273 lots, an increase of 1,889 lots [11]. - International Raw Sugar Spot Price: This week, the international raw sugar spot price was 16.8 cents per pound, an increase of 0.06 cents per pound from last week [15]. - Zhengzhou Sugar Futures: The price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract decreased this week, with a weekly decline of about 1.45%. The top 20 net positions in sugar futures were - 44,496 lots, and the Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts were 12,476 [19][26]. - Zhengzhou Sugar Futures Spread: The 1 - 5 contract spread of Zhengzhou sugar futures was + 14 yuan/ton, and the spot - Zhengzhou sugar basis was + 447 yuan/ton [30]. - Domestic Spot Market: As of September 5, the sugar price in Liuzhou, Guangxi was 5,970 yuan/ton, and the spot price of sugar in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,835 yuan/ton [34]. - Imported Sugar Cost and Profit: This week, the estimated in - quota profit for Brazilian sugar was 1,527 yuan/ton, an increase of 79 yuan/ton from last week; the out - of - quota profit was 152 yuan/ton, an increase of 75 yuan/ton. The estimated in - quota profit for Thai sugar was 1,371 yuan/ton, an increase of 54 yuan/ton, and the out - of - quota profit was 173 yuan/ton, an increase of 82 yuan/ton [40]. 3.3 Industry Chain - Supply Side - Production Increase: As of the end of July 2025, the national sugar production in the 2024/25 sugar - making season was 11.1621 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1989 million tons, or 12.03% [44]. - Supply Side - Industrial Inventory: As of the end of July 2025, the national sugar industrial inventory in the 2024/25 sugar - making season was 1.61 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 100,000 tons, or 5.8% [47]. - Supply Side - Imported Sugar Quantity: In July 2025, China's sugar imports were 740,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 41.56% and a month - on - month increase of 320,000 tons. From January to July 2025, the cumulative sugar imports were 1.78 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.41% [52]. - Demand Side - Faster Sales Rate: As of the end of July, the cumulative national sugar sales were 9.5498 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.2984 million tons, or 15.73%. The cumulative sugar sales rate was 86.56%, 3.74 percentage points faster year - on - year [56]. - Demand Side - Output of Finished Sugar and Soft Drinks: In July 2025, China's monthly output of finished sugar was 410,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 64.7%. The monthly output of soft drinks was 17.9663 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.7% [60]. 3.4 Option and Stock - Related Markets - Option Market: Information on the implied volatility of at - the - money options for sugar this week is presented in the report, but specific data is not described in the text [61]. - Stock Market - Nanning Sugar Industry: The report shows the price - earnings ratio chart of Nanning Sugar Industry, but specific data is not described in the text [65].