螺纹钢市场周报：钢市多空交织，螺纹期价先抑后扬-20250905

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is intertwined with both bullish and bearish factors. The price of rebar futures first declined and then rebounded. With the end of the parade and the weakening influence of high - temperature and rainy weather, there is an expectation of a recovery in downstream demand. It is recommended to trade the RB2601 contract in the range of 3100 - 3200, paying attention to the operation rhythm and risk control. Also, it is suggested to buy out - of - the - money call options opportunistically [2][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - As of the close on September 5, the price of the rebar main contract was 3143 yuan/ton (- 17 yuan/ton), and the spot price of Hangzhou Zhongtian rebar was 3260 yuan/ton (- 40 yuan/ton). - Rebar production decreased slightly to 218.68 million tons (- 1.88 million tons), with a year - on - year increase of 40.15 million tons. - Apparent demand declined. The current period's apparent demand was 202.07 million tons (- 2.14 million tons), with a year - on - year decrease of 16.62 million tons. - Factory and social inventories increased simultaneously. The total rebar inventory was 6.4 billion tons (+ 166.1 million tons), with a year - on - year increase of 843.7 million tons. - The profitability rate of steel mills was 61.04%, a decrease of 2.60 percentage points from the previous week and an increase of 56.71 percentage points compared to the same period last year [5]. 3.1.2 Market Outlook - Macro - aspect: Overseas, the US Court of Appeals ruled that most of the global tariff policies implemented by former President Trump were illegal. The market's attention shifted to the US non - farm payroll data on Friday. Weak employment data might trigger discussions about a 50 - basis - point interest rate cut. Domestically, the China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index in August was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month, indicating a slight improvement in manufacturing market demand. The central bank conducted a 1 - trillion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation on September 5 with a term of 3 months [7]. - Supply - demand aspect: Weekly rebar production decreased, the capacity utilization rate was 47.94%, and the EAF steel operating rate continued to decline. End - users purchased on demand, inventory increased for six consecutive weeks, and apparent demand declined [7]. - Cost aspect: The port inventory of iron ore increased slightly, and the expectation of recovering demand supported the firmness of iron ore prices. The capacity utilization rate of coking coal mines decreased to 75.8%, and the decline in clean coal inventory supported the rebound of coking coal and coke prices [7]. - Technical aspect: The RB2601 contract consolidated sideways, with technical support around 3100. It was testing the pressure of the MA10 moving average in the short term. The MACD indicator showed that the downward momentum of DIFF and DEA weakened, and the green bar slightly shrank [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures price: This week, the RB2601 contract first declined and then rebounded. The RB2510 contract was weaker than the RB2601 contract, and the spread on the 5th was - 89 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 19 yuan/ton [13]. - Warehouse receipts and net positions: On September 5, the warehouse receipt volume of rebar on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 230,731 tons, a week - on - week increase of 31,234 tons. The top 20 net positions of rebar futures contracts were a net short of 183,815 lots, a decrease of 576 lots from the previous week [20]. - Spot price and basis: On September 5, the spot price of Hangzhou's third - grade 20mm HRB400 rebar was 3260 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 40 yuan/ton; the national average price was 3279 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 47 yuan/ton. This week, the rebar spot price was weaker than the futures price, and the basis on the 5th was 117 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 23 yuan/ton [26]. 3.3 Upstream Market - Raw material prices: On September 5, the price of 61% Australian Mac fine ore at Qingdao Port was 837 yuan/dry ton, a week - on - week increase of 9 yuan/dry ton. The spot price of first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1670 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0 yuan/ton [32]. - Iron ore arrivals and inventory: From August 25 - 31, 2025, the total arrivals at 47 Chinese ports were 26.45 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.827 million tons; the total arrivals at 45 Chinese ports were 25.26 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.327 million tons; the total arrivals at the six northern ports were 13.008 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.478 million tons. This week, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 144.2572 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.377 million tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.3033 million tons, a decrease of 0.0381 million tons [36]. - Coking plant situation: This week, the capacity utilization rate of coking plants decreased, and coke inventory increased. The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was 72.61% (- 0.09%), the daily coke output was 512,100 tons (- 700 tons), coke inventory was 407,100 tons (+ 9000 tons), the total coking coal inventory was 7.8095 million tons (- 0.3892 million tons), and the available days of coking coal were 11.5 days (- 0.55 days) [40]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Supply side: - Crude steel production: In July 2025, the national crude steel production was 79.66 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.0%. From January to July, the cumulative national crude steel production was 594.47 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.1% [44]. - Rebar production: On September 4, the weekly rebar production of 139 building material production enterprises was 218.68 million tons, a decrease of 1.88 million tons from the previous week and an increase of 40.15 million tons compared to the same period last year [47]. - EAF steel operating rate: On September 5, the average operating rate of 90 independent EAF steel mills was 73.21%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.88 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 23.99 percentage points [50]. - Rebar inventory: On September 4, the in - factory inventory of rebar in 137 building material production enterprises was 1.7134 million tons, an increase of 17,200 tons from the previous week and an increase of 249,800 tons compared to the same period last year. The inventory of building steel in 35 major cities nationwide was 4.6866 million tons, an increase of 148,900 tons from the previous week and an increase of 593,900 tons compared to the same period last year. The total rebar inventory was 6.4 billion tons, a month - on - month increase of 166.1 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 843.7 million tons [53]. - Downstream situation: - Demand side: From January to July 2025, the newly - started housing area decreased by 19.4% year - on - year, and infrastructure investment increased by 3.2% year - on - year [56]. 3.5 Option Market - Currently, the steel market is relatively weak, but as building steel enters the peak season, downstream enterprises may have restocking needs. It is recommended to buy out - of - the - money call options opportunistically [59].