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瑞达期货纯碱玻璃市场周报-20250905
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-09-05 09:37
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the futures prices of soda ash and glass both increased, with soda ash futures rising by 0.46% and glass futures by 0.59%. The soda ash futures showed a trend of first falling and then rising, while the glass futures also followed a similar pattern. Looking ahead, soda ash is expected to have a loose supply and stable demand, with prices remaining under pressure, but there may be variables due to anti - involution speculation. For glass, the market will fluctuate around the demand side, and the overall de - stocking trend remains unchanged. If there is a domestic follow - up interest rate cut, the market may see growth [6]. - For the SA2601 contract, it is recommended to trade in the range of 1280 - 1360, with stop - loss set at 1240 - 1380. For the FG2601 contract, it is advised to operate in the range of 1120 - 1220, with stop - loss at 1100 - 1240 [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - Market Review: This week, soda ash futures first fell and then rose. The increase in soda ash production news in the first half of the week led to a sharp decline, but on Friday, the price increased significantly due to the sharp rise in glass prices. Glass futures also showed a similar trend, falling in the first half of the week due to poor fundamentals and recovering losses on Friday driven by the rise in coking coal prices and bullish market sentiment [6]. - Market Outlook: For soda ash, the domestic operating rate and production have increased. However, due to the decline in profits, the overall capacity utilization rate is expected to decline, and production may slow down. The number of cold - repaired glass production lines has decreased by one, and the overall production remains at a low level. The profit of the glass industry continues to decline due to weak demand and falling spot prices. The inventory of domestic soda ash enterprises has decreased this week due to replenishment by major traders, but the de - stocking process is still volatile. For glass, the current real - estate situation is not optimistic, and downstream deep - processing orders have increased slightly, with procurement mainly for rigid demand. The overall inventory has started to accumulate again, but the de - stocking trend remains unchanged. The marginal growth of the automobile industry has weakened, and the probability of an interest rate cut is increasing [6]. - Strategy Recommendations: For the SA2601 contract, short - term trading is recommended in the range of 1280 - 1360, with stop - loss set at 1240 - 1380. For the FG2601 contract, it is advised to operate in the range of 1120 - 1220, with stop - loss at 1100 - 1240 [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures Prices: This week, the futures prices of soda ash and glass both closed higher [8]. - Spot Prices and Basis: The spot price of soda ash has decreased this week, and the basis has strengthened. As of September 4, 2025, the mainstream price of heavy soda ash in the Shahe market was reported at 1195 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton compared to the previous week, and the basis was reported at - 82 yuan/ton. The spot price of glass has weakened, and the basis has strengthened, and it is expected to strengthen further in the future. As of September 4, 2025, the price of 5.0mm large - plate glass in the Shahe market was reported at 1056 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4 yuan/ton, and the basis was reported at - 83 yuan/ton [12][16]. - Price Spread: The price spread between soda ash and glass has weakened this week, and it is expected to strengthen next week. As of September 4, 2025, the glass - soda ash price spread was reported at 138 yuan/ton [20]. 3.3 Industry Chain Analysis - Soda Ash Production: This week, the domestic operating rate and production of soda ash have increased. As of September 4, 2025, the national operating rate of soda ash was reported at 86.52%, a month - on - month increase of 3.94%, and the national weekly production of soda ash was reported at 75.17 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.53%. However, the profit of soda ash has decreased, and the cost has increased. It is expected that the production capacity of soda ash will decline next week [24][29][31]. - Glass Production: The number of cold - repaired glass production lines has decreased by one, and the overall production remains unchanged. There are signs of rigid - demand production, and the profit continues to decline. It is expected that the production will remain at a low level next week. There are signs of production line resumption, and the production is expected to increase slightly next week, but the increase will be limited [31][36]. - Profit Analysis: As of September 4, 2025, the theoretical profit of dual - ton soda ash using the joint - alkali process in China was - 48 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 51 yuan/ton, and the theoretical cost was 1687 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 18 yuan/ton. The theoretical profit of dual - ton soda ash using the ammonia - alkali process was - 51 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 31 yuan/ton, and the theoretical cost was 1287 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 9 yuan/ton. The profit of glass enterprises has also decreased, mainly due to the decline in spot prices [34]. - Inventory Analysis: The inventory of domestic soda ash enterprises has decreased this week, mainly due to replenishment by major traders. The inventory of glass enterprises has increased, and it is expected that the de - stocking speed will slow down next week. As of September 4, 2025, the enterprise inventory of soda ash was 182.21 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.43%, and the total inventory of glass was 63.05 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month increase of 0.77% [47][51]. - Downstream Demand: The deep - processing orders of domestic glass downstream have increased slightly, but the demand remains low. As of August 15, 2025, the average number of order days for national deep - processing sample enterprises was 9.65 days [53].