中金固收2025年债市宝典-信用策略分析框架：低利差环境下的信用债投资策略

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the credit bond industry Core Insights - The report discusses the challenges of achieving excess returns in credit bond investments due to a low interest rate and low credit spread environment, emphasizing the need for effective investment strategies [5] - It outlines a framework for analyzing credit bonds, including market segmentation, historical performance during "asset scarcity" phases, and a five-factor model for credit spreads [5][7] - The report highlights the rapid expansion of the Chinese credit bond market, with total outstanding credit bonds reaching CNY 46.99 trillion by July 2025, of which non-financial credit bonds account for CNY 31.96 trillion [13][14] Summary by Sections 1. Overview of the Chinese Credit Bond Market - The credit bond market in China has expanded significantly since 2009, with a notable increase in the variety of products available [11][13] - As of July 2025, the total balance of credit bonds is CNY 46.99 trillion, with non-financial credit bonds making up 68% of this total [13][14] 2. Analysis Framework for Credit Bond "Asset Scarcity" - The report analyzes four phases of "asset scarcity" since 2015, identifying key characteristics and predictive indicators for investors [5][7] 3. Historical Review of Credit Spreads - A historical review of credit spreads since 2008 reveals significant fluctuations, with a focus on the factors influencing these changes [5][7] 4. Research Framework for Credit Spreads - The report presents a five-factor model for analyzing credit spreads, noting that while the factors remain the same, the focus has shifted in the current market context [5][7] 5. Common Investment Strategies in the Credit Bond Market - The report discusses various investment strategies, including duration management, credit selection, leverage operations, and tactical trading, which are crucial for navigating the current low spread environment [5][7]