焦煤焦炭早报（2025-9-8）-20250908

Group 1: Report Core Views 1. Overall Views - The report provides daily views on coking coal and coke, analyzing their fundamentals, bases, inventories, market trends, and future expectations [2][6]. 2. Coking Coal - Fundamentals: Mines are operating normally, with some restarting. The market has a strong price - cut atmosphere. Traders are selling, and coke producers are cautious in purchasing. The trading atmosphere has become dull, with more online auction failures and price drops [2]. - Basis: The spot price is 1170, and the basis is 11.5, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [2]. - Inventory: The total sample inventory is 1890.7 million tons, 28.1 million tons less than last week, which is a positive factor [2]. - Market Trend: The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is below it. The main position is net short, with an increase in short positions [2]. - Expectation: Coke producers' profitability has led to increased production, but steel prices are weak, and coke price cuts have started again. It is expected that coking coal prices will remain stable in the short term [2]. 3. Coke - Fundamentals: Coke producers are more productive due to lower raw coal prices and the end of environmental restrictions. However, steel mills' demand has declined, and traders' speculative demand has weakened, leading to slower coke sales [6]. - Basis: The spot price is 1570, and the basis is - 76, indicating that the spot price is lower than the futures price [6]. - Inventory: The total sample inventory is 864.2 million tons, 17.9 million tons less than last week, which is a positive factor [6]. - Market Trend: The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is below it. The main position is net short, with a decrease in short positions [6]. - Expectation: Coke production is increasing, but demand is weak. It is expected that coke prices will remain stable in the short term [6]. Group 2: Factors Affecting Prices 1. Coking Coal - Positive Factors: Rising hot metal production and limited supply increase [4]. - Negative Factors: Slower procurement of raw coal by coke and steel enterprises and weak steel prices [4]. 2. Coke - Positive Factors: Rising hot metal production and increasing blast furnace operating rate [8]. - Negative Factors: Compressed profit margins of steel mills and over - drawn restocking demand [8]. Group 3: Price and Inventory Information 1. Price - The report lists the prices of different types of metallurgical coke at various ports, including those for trade delivery and factory flat - price delivery [9]. 2. Inventory - Port Inventory: Coking coal port inventory is 282.1 million tons, 10.2 million tons less than last week. Coke port inventory is 215.1 million tons, 17 million tons more than last week [20]. - Independent Coke Producer Inventory: Coking coal inventory is 844.1 million tons, 2.9 million tons more than last week. Coke inventory is 46.5 million tons, 3.6 million tons less than last week [25]. - Steel Mill Inventory: Coking coal inventory is 803.8 million tons, 4.3 million tons more than last week. Coke inventory is 626.7 million tons, 13.3 million tons less than last week [30]. Group 4: Other Data - Coke Oven Capacity Utilization: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coke producers is 74.48% [43]. - Average Profit per Ton of Coke: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is 25 yuan [47].