PTA、MEG早报-20250908

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - For PTA, the recent maintenance and restart are concurrent, the liquidity in the spot market is acceptable, the spot basis is weakening, and the regional basis is somewhat differentiated. The PTA price on the disk has declined following the cost side, and the processing margin has been compressed to below 200 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the results of the OPEC+ meeting this weekend and the changes in polyester upstream and downstream devices [5]. - For MEG, the ethylene glycol load has fallen below 74% this week, and the domestic supply recovery is still delayed. There are still maintenance expectations for some devices in October. The supply-demand structure of ethylene glycol from September to October has improved compared to expectations. The transferable spot of ethylene glycol at the real - time port will continue to tighten, and the spot basis will remain in a strong pattern. Follow - up attention should be paid to polyester production and sales and device changes [7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 PTA Daily View - Fundamentals: On Friday, there were transactions for September middle - term goods at a discount of 70 - 80 to the 01 contract, September lower - term goods at a discount of 65 - 75 to the 01 contract, and some warehouse - receipt cancellation goods at a discount of 80 - 90 to the 01 contract. The price negotiation range was around 4570 - 4610. There were transactions for October goods at a discount of 50 to the 01 contract. The mainstream spot basis was 01 - 76 [5]. - Basis: The spot price was 4585, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 87, with the disk at a premium. The situation is neutral [5]. - Inventory: The PTA factory inventory was 3.9 days, with a month - on - month increase of 0.09 days, which is bearish [6]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the closing price was below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [6]. - Main Position: The net position was short, and the short position increased, which is bearish [6]. - Expectation: Pay attention to the results of the OPEC+ meeting this weekend and the changes in polyester upstream and downstream devices [5]. 3.2 MEG Daily View - Fundamentals: On Friday, the price center of ethylene glycol fluctuated upward, and the basis continued to strengthen. The ethylene glycol disk adjusted widely during the day, and the near - end basis continued to strengthen. In the afternoon, the negotiation and transaction price of next - week's spot was around a premium of 145 - 146 yuan/ton to the 01 contract. The negotiation of far - month futures was stalemate, and most traders were on the sidelines. In terms of US dollars, the center of the ethylene glycol outer - disk slightly increased, and the negotiation price of recent shipments was around 523 - 526 US dollars/ton. There were few offers in the market, and traders participated in the buying moderately. There were transactions of late - September shipments at around 523 US dollars/ton during the day. The negotiation ranges of domestic and foreign transactions were 4465 - 4523 yuan/ton and 523 - 526 US dollars/ton respectively. The situation is neutral [7]. - Basis: The spot price was 4488, and the basis of the 01 contract was 133, with the disk at a discount, which is bullish [7]. - Inventory: The total inventory in the East China region was 38.03 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 2.6 tons, which is bullish [7]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the closing price was below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [7]. - Main Position: The main net position was short, and the short position decreased, which is bearish [7]. - Expectation: Pay attention to polyester production and sales and device changes [7]. 3.3 Influencing Factors Summary - Positive Factors: In August, some PTA devices were planned for maintenance, and the supply - demand expectation improved. As the traditional "Golden September and Silver October" peak season approaches, the market's expectation of demand start is also slightly reflected. Yisheng Hainan's 2 million - ton device was shut down for maintenance, and Hengli Huizhou's 2.5 million - ton device had an unplanned shutdown [10]. - Negative Factors: The profit margins of various links in the industrial chain continue to be under pressure, and the overall operating atmosphere is still cautious [9]. 3.4 PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides detailed data on PTA's production capacity, production, import, total supply, polyester production, and consumption from January 2024 to December 2025, including year - on - year growth rates, inventory changes, and supply - demand gaps [11]. 3.5 Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report presents detailed data on ethylene glycol's production, import, total supply, polyester production, and consumption from January 2024 to December 2025, including year - on - year growth rates, port inventory changes, and supply - demand gaps [12]. Other Data Presentations - The report also includes data charts on bottle - chip spot prices, production margins, capacity utilization rates, inventory, PTA and MEG spreads, basis, processing margins, profits of different production methods, and inventory and operating rates of polyester upstream and downstream industries from 2020 to 2025 [14][17][21][22] etc.