大越期货聚烯烃早报-20250908

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of LLDPE and PP, suggesting that both are expected to show a volatile trend today. The main influencing factors include cost, demand, and domestic macro - policies, while the main risk points are significant fluctuations in crude oil prices and international policy games [4][7][8]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs LLDPE Overview - Fundamentals: In August, the official PMI was 49.4, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the Caixin PMI was 50.4, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in manufacturing sentiment. A comprehensive reform plan for the petrochemical and refining industries is being planned. The start - up of agricultural film enterprises is slowly recovering, with overall demand still weaker than in previous years, and other packaging films are mainly purchased on demand. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7210 (+10), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - Basis: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is - 35, with a premium/discount ratio of - 0.5%, which is neutral [4]. - Inventory: The comprehensive PE inventory is 50.9 million tons (+2.3), which is neutral [4]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4]. - Main Position: The net long position of the LLDPE main contract is increasing, which is bullish [4]. - Expectation: The LLDPE main contract shows a volatile trend on the disk. The demand for agricultural films is rising but still weaker than in previous years, and the industrial inventory is neutral. It is expected that PE will show a volatile trend today [4]. - Leverage Factors: The bullish factor is cost support, while the bearish factor is weak demand [6]. PP Overview - Fundamentals: In August, the official PMI was 49.4, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the Caixin PMI was 50.4, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in manufacturing sentiment. A comprehensive reform plan for the petrochemical and refining industries is being planned. There is new PP production capacity being put into operation, and downstream industries are gradually entering the peak season, with expected improvements in demand for pipes, plastic weaving, etc. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6900 (- 0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [8]. - Basis: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is - 61, with a premium/discount ratio of - 0.9%, which is bearish [8]. - Inventory: The comprehensive PP inventory is 58.2 million tons (+4.3), which is bearish [8]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [8]. - Main Position: The net long position of the PP main contract is decreasing, which is bullish [8]. - Expectation: The PP main contract shows a volatile trend on the disk. There is new production capacity being put into operation recently, and there are expectations of improvement in downstream pipes, plastic weaving, etc. The industrial inventory is neutral. It is expected that PP will show a volatile trend today [8]. - Leverage Factors: The bullish factor is cost support, while the bearish factor is weak demand [10]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - Polyethylene: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polyethylene generally showed an upward trend, with fluctuations in import dependence and consumption growth rate. The expected production capacity in 2025 is 4319.5 million tons, with a growth rate of 20.5% [17]. - Polypropylene: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polypropylene generally increased, with changes in import dependence and consumption growth rate. The expected production capacity in 2025 is 4906 million tons, with a growth rate of 11.0% [19].