棉花周报（9.1-9.5）-20250908

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - This week, the main cotton contract 01 fluctuated around 14,000. With the arrival of the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, there are significant market differences. New cotton is about to be listed, increasing hedging pressure, and the main 01 contract will continue to fluctuate around 14,000. [5][6] - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include the reduction of previous mutual tariffs between China and the US, a year - on - year decrease in commercial inventory, and increased expectations for the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption peak season. Negative factors are the postponement of trade negotiations, currently high export tariffs to the US, an overall decline in foreign trade orders, increased inventory, and the upcoming large - scale listing of new cotton. [7] Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day Review (This part may be mis - named as "Previous Day" but actually contains weekly review) - The main cotton contract 01 fluctuated around 14,000 this week. [5] - ICAC September report: In the 2025/26 season, global cotton production is 25.5 million tons, and consumption is 25.5 million tons. USDA August report: In the 2025/26 season, production is 25.392 million tons, consumption is 25.688 million tons, and the ending inventory is 16.093 million tons. [5] - In July, textile and clothing exports were $26.77 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%. In July, China imported 50,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of 73.2%, and imported 110,000 tons of cotton yarn, a year - on - year increase of 15.38%. [5] - The Ministry of Agriculture's August forecast for the 2025/26 season: production is 6.25 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.4 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.23 million tons. [5] 2. Daily Hints No relevant content provided. 3. Today's Focus No relevant content provided. 4. Fundamental Data - USDA Global Cotton Supply, Demand, and Inventory Forecast (August): - Production: The total global production in August 2024/25 is 25.392 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 391,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 2% or 551,000 tons. [12] - Consumption: The total global consumption in August 2024/25 is 25.688 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 30,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.4% or 60,000 tons. [12] - Imports: The total global imports in August 2024/25 are 9.489 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 239,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 2% or 193,000 tons. [13] - Exports: The total global exports in August 2024/25 are 9.489 million tons (same as imports in the balance). [13] - Ending Inventory: The total global ending inventory in August 2024/25 is 16.093 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 742,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 2.4% or 247,000 tons. [13] - Global Cotton Supply and Demand Balance Sheet (ICAC) for 2025/26: - Global production is 2.59 million tons, an increase of 400,000 tons (+1.6%) year - on - year, mainly due to increased production in Brazil and stable planting areas in the Northern Hemisphere. [14] - Global consumption is 2.56 million tons, basically unchanged year - on - year. China's consumption accounts for 32% (8.2 million tons), and India's cotton - planting area accounts for 38% of the world's. [14] - Ending inventory is 1.71 million tons, an increase of 260,000 tons (+1.6%) year - on - year. The inventory - to - consumption ratio rises to 66.8%, indicating a loose supply. [14] - Global trade volume is 970,000 tons, an increase of 36,000 tons (+3.9%) year - on - year. Major exporters are Brazil (32% share) and the US (3.18 million tons), and major importers are Bangladesh (19% share). China relies on Brazilian cotton to ease trade frictions. [14] - The price forecast (Cotlook A Index) is 57 - 94 cents per pound (median 73 cents), with a narrower year - on - year fluctuation, reflecting the expected supply - demand balance. [14] - China's Cotton Supply and Demand Forecast (Ministry of Agriculture) for 2025/26: - Beginning inventory is 8.01 million tons, production is 6.25 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.4 million tons, and ending inventory is 8.23 million tons. [16] - The average domestic cotton 3128B price is expected to be in the range of 15,000 - 17,000 yuan per ton, and the Cotlook A Index is expected to be in the range of 75 - 100 cents per pound. [16] 5. Position Data No relevant content provided.