大越期货白糖周报-20250908

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, both the domestic and international sugar markets declined, with international raw sugar approaching its previous low level. The futures main contract 01 has fallen to the 5500 mark, showing short - term support and potential for a rebound [4][5]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the sugar market. Positive factors include good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and the change in the US cola formula to use sucrose. Negative factors are the increase in global sugar production, an expected global supply surplus in the new year, the opening of the import profit window due to the price of foreign sugar being below 16 cents per pound, and increased import impact [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - This week, both domestic and international sugar markets declined, with international raw sugar approaching its previous low level. ISO expects a global sugar supply deficit of 231,000 tons in the 25/26 season, a significant reduction from the previous forecast. Conab predicts a sugar production of 40.6 million tons in the south - central region of Brazil in the 25/26 season, a 3.1% decrease from the previous estimate. As of the end of July 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China was 11.1621 million tons, cumulative sugar sales were 9.5498 million tons, and the sales rate was 85.6%. In July 2025, China imported 740,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 320,000 tons; the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 159,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 68,500 tons [4]. 2. Daily Prompt - International raw sugar has fallen below the 16 - cent mark, and domestic Zhengzhou sugar has followed the downward trend. The domestic consumption peak season has passed, the market has seen a significant increase in low - priced imported sugar, and the spot price has declined [5]. 3. Today's Focus - No relevant information provided 4. Fundamental Data - Multiple institutions have different forecasts for the 25/26 season. Czarnikow predicts a global sugar market surplus of 7.5 million tons, Dataro expects a surplus of 1.53 million tons, StoneX adjusts the surplus downward by 700,000 tons to 3.04 million tons, Green Pool forecasts a 5.3% increase in global sugar production to 199.1 million tons, and USDA expects a 4.7% year - on - year increase in global sugar production, a 1.4% increase in consumption, and a surplus of 11.397 million tons. ISO's forecast of the supply deficit has significantly decreased [8]. - The China Sugar Supply and Demand Balance Sheet shows that in the 2025/26 season, the sugar production is expected to be 11.2 million tons, imports are 5 million tons, consumption is 15.9 million tons, and the balance change is 120,000 tons. The international sugar price is expected to be between 16.5 - 21.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be between 5,800 - 6,500 yuan per ton [36]. 5. Position Data - No relevant information provided