沪镍&不锈钢早报—2025年9月8日-20250908

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - 沪镍: Last week, nickel prices fluctuated weakly. Spot dealers reduced premiums to promote sales, with overall trading being average. Ore prices slightly declined in some parts, while nickel - iron prices rose steadily, keeping the cost line firm. Stainless - steel inventories continued to fall, and the "Golden September and Silver October" market is anticipated. New energy vehicle production and sales data were good, but the year - on - year decline in ternary battery loading limited overall demand. In the short term, the impact of anti - involution should be monitored, and the long - term oversupply situation remains unchanged. The 2510 contract of Shanghai nickel is expected to fluctuate, with support from the cost line below [2]. - 不锈钢: Spot stainless - steel prices decreased. In the short term, some nickel - ore prices slightly declined, while freight rates remained firm, and nickel - iron prices rose steadily, keeping the cost line firm. Stainless - steel inventories continued to fall, and consumption during the "Golden September and Silver October" is expected. The short - term anti - involution may affect the black - metal sector again. The 2511 contract of stainless steel is expected to fluctuate widely around the 20 - day moving average [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Nickel and Stainless - Steel Price Overview - Futures: On September 5th, the Shanghai nickel main contract was at 121,310, up 460 from the previous day; the London nickel was at 15,280, up 20; the stainless - steel main contract was at 12,850, down 5. The nickel index on the Wuxi trading center was at 121,050, up 100, and the cold - rolled index was at 12,590, down 10 [12]. - Spot: On September 5th, SMM1 electrolytic nickel was at 121,700, down 350; 1 Jinchuan nickel was at 122,750, down 350; 1 imported nickel was at 121,050, down 350; nickel beans were at 123,150, down 350. Cold - rolled 304*2B stainless steel prices in Wuxi, Foshan, Hangzhou, and Shanghai all decreased by 100 [12]. Nickel Warehouse Receipts and Inventories - As of September 5th, the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 26,986 tons, with futures inventory at 21,678 tons, an increase of 547 tons and a decrease of 227 tons respectively. LME nickel inventory was 215,418, up 108; Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 21,678, down 61; the total inventory was 237,096, up 47 [14][15]. Stainless - Steel Warehouse Receipts and Inventories - On September 5th, the Wuxi stainless - steel inventory was 596,600 tons, the Foshan inventory was 313,200 tons, and the national inventory was 1,053,600 tons, a decrease of 29,400 tons compared to the previous period. The 300 - series inventory was 640,900 tons, a decrease of 13,700 tons. The stainless - steel warehouse receipts were 99,439, down 304 [20][21]. Nickel Ore and Nickel - Iron Prices - On September 5th, the price of red - soil nickel ore CIF with Ni1.5% was 57 dollars/wet ton, and with Ni0.9% was 29 dollars/wet ton, both unchanged from the previous day. The freight rates from the Philippines to Lianyungang and Tianjin Port also remained unchanged. High - nickel wet - ton (8 - 12) was at 945.5 yuan/nickel point, up 0.5, and low - nickel wet - ton (below 2) was at 3,450 yuan/ton, unchanged [24]. Stainless - Steel Production Costs - The traditional production cost was 13,069, the scrap - steel production cost was 13,552, and the low - nickel + pure - nickel production cost was 16,713 [26]. Nickel Import Cost Calculation The imported price was converted to 123,058 yuan/ton [29]. 3. Factors Affecting the Market Bullish Factors - Expectations of demand boost during the "Golden September and Silver October" [6] - Anti - involution policies [6] - Cost line support at 120,000 [6] Bearish Factors - A significant year - on - year increase in domestic production with no new demand growth points, and the long - term oversupply situation remains unchanged [6] - A year - on - year decline in ternary battery loading [6]