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大越期货投资咨询部王明伟
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-09-08 02:37
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cotton market is currently in a neutral state, with the 2025/26 production and consumption estimated by ICAC at 25.5 million tons each, and by USDA at 25.392 million tons and 25.688 million tons respectively. The expected end - of - period inventory by the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture is 8.23 million tons. The market shows mixed signals, with the basis being bullish, inventory bearish, and the market trend uncertain [4]. - There are both bullish and bearish factors in the market. Bullish factors include reduced Sino - US tariffs and lower commercial inventory year - on - year, along with increased expectations for the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption peak season. Bearish factors are the postponed trade negotiations, high export tariffs to the US, a decline in overall foreign trade orders, increased inventory, and the upcoming large - scale listing of new cotton [5]. - As the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season approaches, the market has significant differences. With new cotton about to be listed, the hedging pressure is increasing. The main 01 contract on the futures market continues to fluctuate around 14,000 [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review No relevant content provided. 3.2 Daily Tips - Fundamentals: Different institutions have different estimates for the 2025/26 cotton production, consumption, and inventory. For example, ICAC estimates production and consumption at 25.5 million tons each; USDA estimates production at 25.392 million tons, consumption at 25.688 million tons, and end - of - period inventory at 16.093 million tons. In July, textile and clothing exports were $26.77 billion, a 0.1% year - on - year decrease. China's cotton imports in July were 50,000 tons, a 73.2% year - on - year decrease, and cotton yarn imports were 110,000 tons, a 15.38% year - on - year increase. The Ministry of Agriculture estimates 2025/26 production at 6.25 million tons, imports at 1.4 million tons, consumption at 7.4 million tons, and end - of - period inventory at 8.23 million tons [4]. - Basis: The national average price of spot 3128b cotton is 15,446 yuan, with a basis of 1,446 yuan for the 01 contract, indicating a premium over futures, which is a bullish signal [4]. - Inventory: The Ministry of Agriculture's estimated end - of - period inventory for the 2025/26 period in August is 8.23 million tons, which is a bearish factor [4]. - Market Chart: The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend [4]. - Main Position: The net long position is decreasing, and the main trend is unclear, but the overall position is still long, which is a bullish signal [4]. - Expectations: As the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season arrives, the market has significant differences. With new cotton about to be listed, the hedging pressure is increasing, and the main 01 contract continues to fluctuate around 14,000 [4]. 3.3 Today's Focus No relevant content provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - USDA Global Cotton Supply - Demand Forecast: In August, the total global cotton production was 25.392 million tons, a 2% year - on - year decrease; consumption was 25.688 million tons, a 0.4% year - on - year increase; and end - of - period inventory was 16.093 million tons, a 2.4% year - on - year decrease [10][11]. - ICAC Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: In the 2025/26 period, global production is estimated at 25.9 million tons, a 1.6% year - on - year increase; consumption is 25.6 million tons, basically unchanged; end - of - period inventory is 17.1 million tons, a 1.6% year - on - year increase; and global trade volume is 9.7 million tons, a 3.9% year - on - year increase. The price forecast for the Cotlook A index is between 57 - 94 cents per pound (median 73 cents) [12]. - Ministry of Agriculture's Data for China: For the 2025/26 period, the estimated production is 6.25 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.4 million tons, and end - of - period inventory is 8.23 million tons. The domestic average price of 3128B cotton is expected to be between 15,000 - 17,000 yuan per ton, and the Cotlook A index is expected to be between 75 - 100 cents per pound [14]. 3.5 Position Data No relevant content provided.